Pitchers
- David Price
Now, now, I’m sure you were expecting Greinke in the top spot, but hear me out. Price is younger, by nearly two years, and has posted equal or better FIPs in each of the past four seasons.
Some may be concerned about the team having two lefties at the top of the rotation, but if Price can get righties out, which he’s proven he’s able to do, it’s not a problem.
His trade to Toronto means there’s no qualifying offer attached, which is icing on the cake. The question is how much to give him.
I believe the bidding will start at five years, $150 million, and whoever gets the furthest from that wins his services. Obviously, long-term contracts to pitchers is a risky business, but if anyone’s worth it, it’s Price.
- Zack Greinke
Greinke, who recently celebrated his 32nd birthday and also cut his long hair, opted out of the final three years of his contract to become a free agent.
While some athletes give the cliché of “I just want to play for a winner” or “I want to find a place that feels like home,” Greinke makes no apologies for the fact that he wants to play for the team that will pay him.
And that honesty is refreshing. Now, it’s time for the Dodgers to pony up. While 32 may be a scary number for some pitchers, Greinke is a phenomenal athlete and has made at least 28 starts in every season since 2008.
His newfound reliance on a changeup is an added bonus, as it puts less stress on his elbow when compared to throwing a slider. He’s an excellent fielder and offers some of the best bat flips in baseball at the plate.
It comes down to money. Do you want to give him five years and hope he’s still productive when he’s 36? Is he going to be worth $30 million a year in his mid-30s?
With most pitchers, these are huge red flags. However, Greinke is one of a kind.
- Johnny Cueto
The third Royal on this list, Cueto was also traded in season and won’t require the Dodgers to forfeit a draft pick.
Some said Cueto lost money after the trade as he struggled through the end of the season. He proceeded to turn in prolific playoff starts, including a complete game in the World Series, erasing any doubts that he’d lost his swagger.
Cueto is similar to Greinke in that he employs a fairly deep arsenal, changes speeds, mixes his pitches and depends more on location than simply missing bats. He’s also a solid defender and does not allow stolen bases.
Cueto turns 30 in February, so a five-year contract is likely the reasonable expectation. He should get less annual average value than Price and Greinke but six years and $150 million doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibilities. Not bad for the third best starter on the market.
- Jordan Zimmermann
Zimmermann is yet another alumnus from the University of Tommy John, undergoing the procedure in 2009. Luckily, he’s been pretty much injury-free since returning in 2010, making at least 32 starts in each of the last five seasons.
He relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it 62.5 percent of the time last season, which is a substantial drop from 2014 but still ranking in the Top 20 in baseball.
Zimmermann had his best season in 2014, when he threw his fastball 70 percent of the time. That might be something to watch going forward.
Like Price and Cueto, Zimmermann turns 30 next year so a five or six year deal makes sense. He’s coming off a down season, so he’ll likely be the cheapest of the bunch. He doesn’t profile as an ace but would be a very strong No. 2 starter.
- Jeff Samardzija
The real wild card in this year’s free agent pitching market is The Shark. After establishing himself as a frontline starter in 2014, Samardzija went to the Chicago White Sox in the offseason and wasn’t the same last year.
His strikeout rate plummeted to 6.86 per nine innings and he posted an ERA of nearly 5.00. What complicates matters more is the fact that the Sox gave him a qualifying offer, so not only would you be betting on him bouncing back but you’d be losing a draft pick in the process.
Samardzija is almost assured not to get a contract longer than two or three years and may be better off accepting the qualifying offer, regaining his value, and testing the market next season when there aren’t so many quality arms available.
Re-Sign: Brett Anderson
The oft-injured lefty came to the club on a one-year deal and ended up being more than just a pleasant surprise. With Hyun-Jin Ryu missing the entire season and Brandon McCarthy making just four starts, Anderson provided stability in the middle of a devastated rotation.
He set career highs with 31 starts and 180.1 innings, while posting a 3.69 ERA and a 3.94 FIP.
While he’ll be just 28 in February, there still is concern over Anderson’s long term health, as he’d made just 19 starts in the Majors over the prior three seasons. He was given a qualifying offer, but there must be a team out there who’s desperate enough to give him a three year deal.
Predictions
I would be very surprised if the Dodgers didn’t sign at least two players off of this list. Most believe Greinke will be back, but it may be too much to ask that Price or Cueto join him.
On the hitting side, the Dodgers do have a crowded outfield, but that should finally be addressed this offseason.
Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier and don’t fit into the team’s long term plans. Second base should be taken care of via a short term veteran signing, without an imminent replacement on the farm.
My guess? The Dodgers re-sign Anderson and Greinke, plus bring in Zobrist.
Who do you think the Dodgers should sign? Should they go big or focus on building from within? Let me know in the comment section below or on Twitter @JaredJMassey. You can listen to Jared on the weekly Dugout Blues Podcast
