The general manager meetings began Monday in Boca Raton, Fla. and free agency is upon us. While the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t meet expectations in the postseason, they don’t have many holes to fill.
Mainly, they’ll need to make decisions on their own free agents, choosing to re-sign familiar faces, pursue veterans on the market or look within the organization for replacements.
Ideally, the front office would love to go with young, homegrown talent, but the farm system isn’t quite ready to begin consistently producing Major Leaguers. Let’s take a look at some of the top hitters and pitchers on the market and see how they fit in Los Angeles.
Hitters
- Jason Heyward
Heyward was included in a surprise trade last winter, when the Atlanta Braves sent the local product to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Shelby Miller.
Many assumed the Cardinals would turn the 25 year old around from a somewhat disappointing 2014 season, and they did. Heyward batted .293/.359/.439 and produced a 6.0 fWAR, good for 11th in the Majors.
What makes Heyward such an attractive free agent is his age. While most players reach free agency around age 30, Heyward is just 26, meaning he’s in his prime and there’s a non-zero chance that he may improve offensively. His calling card is his elite defense in right field.
The main question is, how long can Heyward, a player whose value relies heavily on defense, be an All-Star quality right fielder?
The Hardball Times suggests a player peaks defensively from ages 24-28, which is around the same time a player’s offense peaks as well.
Heyward’s offensive value in 2015 wasn’t so much a result of mind-blowing numbers but a referendum on the league’s depressed offensive environment — MLB batters averaged a .722 on-base plus slugging percentage.
However, his approach was good last year, as he made continued improvements to both his strikeout and contact rates.
Should the Dodgers gamble on Heyward sustaining his defensive value beyond the next two or three seasons when research says otherwise? Can he tap into his enormous power potential?
These are difficult questions to answer and should lead to a shorter term contract than one would generally assume a 26-year-old star would receive. Anything over five years would come with some pretty heavy risk, and Heyward could get another big contract at age 31.
- Justin Upton
Interesting note: the first and second overall picks from the 2005 draft are free agents this year. Upton, taken No. 1 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, has had a tumultuous career so far.
First, he began to establish himself as an offensive force in Arizona before abruptly being dealt to Atlanta prior to the 2013 season. Then, he was dealt to the San Diego Padres last offseason.
Petco didn’t completely sap his power, as Upton clubbed 26 home runs. He swings and misses plenty, but when he connects, it’s a thing of beauty. A five-tool talent coming out of high school, he’s not a power hitting corner outfielder who’s found a home in left field.
His defensive runs saved in left last year was 8, his highest mark since 2011. At just 28 years old, he has a couple years left before getting whacked by the regression stick.
A five-year deal signs him through his conventional “peak,” which is generally seen as ages 28-32. However, his defense could quickly drop off, so he’ll need to continue to hit for power and get on base to maintain his value.
That shouldn’t be difficult and he should have no problem securing a long term contract. I’m sure he’ll be happy to spend half his home games outside of San Diego.
- Yoenis Cespedes
And then there’s Yoenis Cespedes. He’s is the opposite of Heyward on offense. He swings and misses a lot, hits for power, doesn’t walk and he strikes out.
However, that doesn’t mean Cespedes is not a good player. In fact, his fWAR of 6.7 in 2015 ranked seventh in baseball, just above Heyward, who was 11th.
Miraculously, Cespedes has improved dramatically on defense over the past two years. He’s gone from someone who could be considered a liability to worth about one win each of the last two seasons.
Plus, he has the best outfield arm in baseball and has proven he’s not a complete disaster in center field. Cespedes, who just turned 30, should receive a contract in the five year range, with an annual average value approaching $30 million.
He offers the added bonus of not costing a draft pick, since he was ineligible for a qualifying offer due to his being traded during the season.
With a team that’s aiming to “go young,” dedicating more than $100 million to a player who’s past his peak may not fit into the Dodgers’ plans. However, this front office has been full of surprises.
- Ben Zobrist
Zobrist just went and got himself a ring in Kansas City and is in line for a decent payday. However, he turns 35 in May and the two qualities that used to separate him, his defensive capability and versatility, are relics of the past.
Still, he offers the high contact, high walk rate package that analytics love. Again, the club wants to go younger, so while Zobrist is approaching the twilight of his career, he could still provide a productive bridge to whatever prospect is in the wings.
A two or three-year deal should get it done and, like Cespedes, Zobrist doesn’t cost a draft pick.
- Alex Gordon
Heyward is the ghost of Alex Gordon past. Gordon, who turns 32 in February, saw his defensive value crater this year. After posting four consecutive years of a DRS equal or greater than 16, this year’s number was just seven.
Granted, it was fewer innings, but he’s at the age where you begin to expect that type of decline. Offensively, he’s similar to Heyward, though he makes less contact.
And, at age 32, you’re going to expect the offense to begin to drop off. Gordon would be a nice backup plan to Heyward, as he’d cost less in terms of money and years, though he would cost a draft pick.
Re-sign: Howie Kendrick
Hey, remember him? He hit .295/.336/.409 and turned 32 in July, but someone out there will give him two or three years after Kendrick presumably rejects the qualifying offer. It could be the Dodgers.
The downside? He posted a career worst defensive runs saved this season at -12, and his poor defense was evident even to casual observers. Still, a slim infield market makes him an attractive short term option.
And if Kendrick doesn’t re-sign, the Dodgers will receive a draft pick. Not a bad consolation prize.
CONTINUE READING: Pitching Options Available To The Dodgers Via Free Agency
