The Los Angeles Dodgers were given the highest odds of reaching the 2021 MLB postseason by Fangraphs at 97.9%. Following the Dodgers is division rival San Diego Padres (92.8%), then the New York Yankees (92.1%), New York Mets (81.7%) and Houston Astros (68.7%).
Outside of the Dodgers and Padres, FanGraphs does not expect any of the other National League West teams to compete this year as the San Francisco Giants are only given a 7% chance of making the postseason, while the Arizona Diamondbacks are at 2.1% and Colorado Rockies at 0.2%.
The Dodgers topping the list comes as no surprise considering they are the defending World Series champions and improved during the offseason. Not only did the Dodgers bring back key contributors like Justin Turner and Blake Treinen, but they also added reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer.
In addition to Bauer, the Dodgers’ starting rotation will also be bolstered by the return of David Price, who opted out of the 2020 season due to coronavirus (COVID-19) concerns.
As it currently stands, MLB will not be going with an expanded postseason in 2021, which should make the NL West race between the Dodgers and Padres even more interesting. They had the two best records in the NL last year, and if that is the case again this season, one of the two will be forced to play in the Wild Card Game.
The Dodgers have won the NL West in eight straight seasons, so even though the Padres made a handful of moves to improve this offseason as well, they are still looking up at L.A.
PECOTA projects Dodgers to have best record in MLB
In another projection model, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA has the Dodgers as the best team in baseball in 2021 with a 103-59 record. That was before the team re-signed Turner, so it likely would go up by at least a game if updated.
The Padres were projected to finish 96-66, meaning PECOTA still sees a sizable gap between the two teams.
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