The Los Angeles Dodgers entered the 2025 season expecting to repeat as World Series champions. After a dominant postseason performance in 2024, where they steamrolled the Yankees on their way to their 2nd championship this decade, the club saw oddsmakers set their preseason odds at +150—a figure underscoring both their talent and the confidence placed in them by analysts and observers alike. Fast-forward to the final week of September, and a dramatically different picture has emerged: the Dodgers’ title odds have ballooned to +450, and their status as consensus favorites has evaporated.
Using tools such as the implied probability calculator online at Thunderpick, Los Angeles’ likelihood of repeating was evaluated at 40 percent in the spring. That number has since slid to 18 percent, reflecting a more competitive National League playoff landscape and a season with setbacks and uncertainties. With a slim 1.5-game lead on the surging San Diego Padres and five games left in the regular season, the Dodgers are prepping for the playoffs and scrambling to lock down the division.
Starting Rotation Stays Strong
Contrary to narratives about a weakened starting staff, the Dodgers’ primary rotation has performed to expectation. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Clayton Kershaw, and Tyler Glasnow have each delivered effective seasons, providing stability at the top end and often outpitching their opposition. Yamamoto has anchored the group with a stellar run of quality starts, while Ohtani’s return as a dual-threat continues to set him apart. Building on his Cy Young-caliber track record, Snell, who has missed much of the season, has proved a valuable presence, and both Kershaw and Glasnow have turned in consistent, high-level innings.
Instead, the injuries that have undermined the Dodgers’ pitching depth have come further down the staff. Tony Gonsolin, Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove, and River Ryan are all lost for the season. Ohtani, Snell, Michael Kopech, and Emmitt Sheehan have all faced extended absences or reduced workloads. The loss of several reliable arms has forced the club to turn to younger relievers and spot starters, thinning the margin for error late in games and placing additional strain on high-leverage bullpen options.
The Big Ouch Bullpen
The current bullpen has been a disaster, struggling to maintain an average level of consistency throughout the 2025 season, culminating in costly late-game stumbles. A central concern has been the performance of veteran relievers such as Blake Treinen and left-hander Tanner Scott. Once a shutdown option in high-leverage spots, Treinen has experienced a sharp decline in effectiveness. Command issues have led to an uptick in walks and home runs allowed, and Treinen’s ERA has ballooned well above his career average. The Dodgers have often found themselves unable to hold slim leads when turning games over to their late-inning bullpen mix.
Tanner Scott, acquired to bolster the relief corps from the left side, was expected to provide a solution, especially against tough left-handed batters in the late innings. Instead, Scott has struggled with control, issuing walks at one of the highest rates on the team and failing to get outs in critical matchups consistently. His inability to strand inherited runners has compounded the Dodgers’ problems, frequently extending opponent rallies and putting greater pressure on the rotation to go deeper into games. Combined, the struggles of Treinen and Scott have forced manager Dave Roberts to search relentlessly for reliable answers in the late innings—an ongoing challenge as the postseason approaches.
Key Position Player Injuries Disrupt Continuity
The Dodgers’ offensive depth has also been tested, as injuries to critical contributors have prevented the lineup from achieving sustained rhythm. Max Muncy’s campaign was derailed by a combination of a left knee bone bruise and an oblique strain, keeping him below 90 games played and resulting in a .220 average with diminished power numbers compared to previous seasons. Tommy Edman, acquired as a versatile infield option, has battled a late-season hamstring injury, hampering the Dodgers’ ability to move pieces around the diamond as needed.
Catcher Will Smith remains sidelined with a hairline fracture in his finger. His presence is pivotal as a run producer and manager of a complex pitching staff packed with veterans and rising prospects. Smith’s injury has led to increased reliance on backups behind the plate during the stretch run, adding further pressure on the team’s organizational depth.
After overcoming early-season wrist issues, Mookie Betts has posted a .258 average with 20 home runs and 79 RBIs in 146 games—solid numbers but short of his career peak. Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, continues to supply stability in the heart of the order, batting .292 with 21 home runs and 85 RBIs as of the final week of September. Shohei Ohtani’s MVP-level campaign stands out; his stat line (.282 average, 53 home runs, 99 RBIs, 1.011 OPS across 153 games) is a foundation for the Dodgers’ offensive identity. Still, losing lineup depth at critical junctures has challenged the team’s run production and ability to maintain pressure on opposing pitchers.
The National League Tightens
While Los Angeles has endured its own hurdles, their standing atop the National League has also been challenged by peers. The Philadelphia Phillies have been powerful, reaching 92 wins with a well-rounded roster built around J.T. Realmuto’s late-season hot streak and a pitching staff spearheaded by Ranger Suárez. With its consistently strong arms and Christian Yelich’s resurgence, Milwaukee stands as another contender ready to test the Dodgers’ resolve in October.
As a result, the Dodgers’ odds of capturing the pennant have narrowed. Their projected path to another World Series runs through the two most complete clubs in the National League, both poised to take advantage if Los Angeles stumbles at any point during the playoffs.
Offensive Slumps and Missed Opportunities
Another story of September has been the inconsistent output from the Dodgers’ offense. After a hot August, the team cooled noticeably, scoring only 3.2 runs per game during early September. This period included a sweep at the hands of the Pirates and the fewest runs scored in a four-game stretch at any point in the last two years. While production has stabilized somewhat in the final weeks, the questions about run creation against postseason-level pitching remain unresolved.
With the postseason looming, contributions from supporting cast members will be vital. If Betts and Freeman maintain their recent form and Smith returns healthy, the lineup will present a formidable challenge for even the league’s best arms. Ohtani’s continued production—already historic for a two-way player—gives the Dodgers an engine few teams can match. However, depth issues mean that every at-bat in October will carry heightened importance.
Looking to October
The Dodgers remain in control of their destiny but face less margin for error than in other recent title runs. Their slim division lead underscores the importance of every remaining game, and a sudden Padres surge could force a wild-card scenario. Health remains the unpredictable variable. The performance of the team’s core stars, now complemented by a patchwork supporting cast, will determine if Los Angeles can navigate a National League postseason bracket full of teams riding momentum and health at the right time.
As the postseason nears, the Dodgers continue to possess one of the top rosters in baseball, but their dominance is far from assured. Injuries, offensive fluctuations, and a resurgent set of rivals have combined to create one of the most uncertain playoff outlooks the franchise has faced in years. The path to another title is still available—though less specific and harder-earned than many had predicted last spring.
