The Los Angeles Dodgers lineup has been incredibly inconsistent to begin the season as it feels like the club either puts up 10 runs in a game or one run, with no in-between.
L.A. is still fifth in runs scored with 121 thanks to their offensive outbursts, but they are batting just .229/.327/.460 in their 23 games. Only six teams in MLB have a lower batting average than the Dodgers.
While the Dodgers managed to pick up a series win against the Chicago Cubs, 17 of their 22 runs came via the home run. While the homer is the most efficient way to score offense, it is prone to creating inconsistent stretches, which was highlighted often during the 2018 season.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is not too concerned the 2023 club will have the same problems, however, and believes his players will start hitting for more average as the season goes on and some of their batted ball luck starts to change, via SportsNet LA:
“You know what’s interesting, is as we put together this ballclub, we felt this average and hit tool was going to play a little bit more than it has and maybe cut into the homers. It hasn’t played out that way, but I do think the ability to hit for average is going to happen for our ballclub. There’s some guys that are swinging the bat well that just haven’t gotten the results they’re going to get.”
Of the primary Dodgers position players, eight have an expected batting average above their current averages. The group includes Freddie Freeman, David Peralta, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Vargas, Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes and Miguel Rojas.
Only Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, James Outman and Trayce Thompson are performing better or similar to the expectations of their batted ball profile.
Heyward has the most significant gap as he is batting .171 with a .259 xBA. Vargas has also been quite unlucky, batting .211 with a .274 xBA, and Peralta is hitting .227 with a .299 xBA.
As a team, the Dodgers’ .256 expected batting average is above MLB’s average of .247. But with one of the lowest actual averages in the league, they should see things start to even out with a larger sample.
Although expected stats don’t mean the Dodgers lineup is going to continue producing at these rates, they tend to be better indicators of future performance than traditional stats and provide better insight into what the offense has done.
With that being said, there should be hope for the offense all around moving forward, and it will be even better when Smith returns to full health.
Dodgers lineup underperforming expected power numbers
In addition, the Dodgers are also underperforming their slugging and wOBA numbers, with a .456 actual slugging percentage compared to a .486 xSLG, and a .341 wOBA compared to an xwOBA of .363.
The current MLB average for xSLG is .413 while the xwOBA is .324.
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