The 2024 PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus have the Los Angeles Dodgers remaining as the National League West champions by finishing the season 101-61, good for the top record in MLB.
PECOTA also expects the Dodgers to lead MLB in runs scored while also having a top pitching staff in terms of runs allowed.
The Dodgers are projected to score 879 runs this year, ahead of the Atlanta Braves (855), Houston Astros (839) and New York Yankees (827) as the only teams with 800 or more runs.
On the pitching side, the Dodgers are expected to allow 685 runs, placing them behind the Braves (671), Baltimore Orioles (675), Tampa Bay Rays (681), Minnesota Twins (681) and the Yankees (684).
The Dodgers are one of only two teams projected to reach the 100-win mark, joining the Braves, who are also projected to finish the year 101-61.
However, the Dodgers have a slight edge over the Braves in their projections, coming in with a win total of 101.1 to 60.9 losses compared to the Braves 100.7 wins and 61.3 losses.
With that, the Dodgers and Braves are tied for the highest postseason odds, with each of them checking in with a 99.8% chance to play Ocotber baseball in 2024.
However, the Braves are the World Series favorites with an 18.7% chance compared to the Dodgers’ 17.1% chance. The next closest team is the Astros with a 12.1% chance, while the Yankees are the only other team above 10%, with a mark just shy of 11%.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are projected to finish second in the NL West with an 85-77 record. The D-Backs made some improvements this offseason after advancing to the 2023 World Series, but still fall short of the Dodgers’ superteam.
Rounding out the NL West are the San Francisco Giants (81-81), San Diego Padres (80-82) and the Colorado Rockies (58-104).
In the American League, the Astros are expected to finish as the top seed with a record of 95-67. Following them are the Yankees (94-68) and the Minnesota Twins (88-74).
The AL East is projected to be a tough division with the top four teams each finishing with at least 86 wins in their projections. Only the Boston Red Sox fall short of the mark.
The defending World Series champions Texas Rangers are projected to finish second in the AL West with an 86-76 record.
Last year, the Dodgers outperformed their PECOTA projections by three wins after finishing the season 100-62.
Dodgers’ PECOTA projections since winning NL West in 2013
| Year | PECOTA | Actual W-L |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 93-69 | 92-70 |
| 2014 | 98-64 | 94-68 |
| 2015 | 97-65 | 92-70 |
| 2016 | 94-68 | 91-71 |
| 2017 | 97-65 | 104-58 |
| 2018 | 99-63 | 92-71 |
| 2019 | 95-67 | 106-56 |
| 2020 | 38-22 | 43-17 |
| 2021 | 103-59 | 106-56 |
| 2022 | 98-64 | 111-51 |
| 2023 | 97-65 | 100-62 |
| 2024 | 101-61 | TBD |
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