The 2023 PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus have the Los Angeles Dodgers remaining National League West champions by going 97-65 to finish ahead of the San Diego Padres, trailing only the New York Yankees (99-63) for the best record and scoring the most runs in baseball this season.
PECOTA anticipates the Dodgers’ biggest threat in the NL coming from the New York Mets, who are projected to have a 97-65 record as well. The Padres are forecasted to go 94-68.
Last season the Dodgers blew past their 98-64 projected record by PECOTA en route to a franchise-best 111 wins. Unfortunately for L.A., all that ultimately amounted to was heartbreak in the postseason as they were eliminated by the Padres in the NL Division Series.
“There’s 29 teams that should have a sting,” Freddie Freeman recently said while reflecting upon the 2022 season. “No matter what, if you don’t win the World Series, you should not feel good when the season is over. When you win 111 games and get knocked out in the first round, there’s a little extra sting, let’s be honest.
“If you need to find fuel in Spring Training, you can do that. But for me, every year I don’t win a World Series, that’s my fuel. I want to win a World Series every single year. Realistically is that going to happen? No. It’s so hard to do that.
“But the sting is there because of how good our team was. Everyone knew how good our team was. Sometimes baseball and sports happen. That’s what happened to us last year, but come in and we’ve got to do it all over again.”
The shocking postseason result sent the Dodgers into an offseason that resulted in the likes of Hanser Alberto, Tyler Anderson, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Andrew Heaney, Tommy Kahnle, Craig Kimbrel, Chris Martin, Kevin Pillar, Justin Turner and Trea Turner all signing with different teams in free agency.
Although there are plenty of questions — more so than in recent years for a perennial World Series hopeful — the Dodgers’ youth movement nevertheless doesn’t appear to have had much of a negative affect on 2023 projections by PECTOA.
Dodgers’ PECOTA projections since winning NL West in 2013
| Year | PECOTA | Actual W-L |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 93-69 | 92-70 |
| 2014 | 98-64 | 94-68 |
| 2015 | 97-65 | 92-70 |
| 2016 | 94-68 | 91-71 |
| 2017 | 97-65 | 104-58 |
| 2018 | 99-63 | 92-71 |
| 2019 | 95-67 | 106-56 |
| 2020 | 38-22 | 43-17 |
| 2021 | 103-59 | 106-56 |
| 2022 | 98-64 | 111-51 |
| 2023 | 97-65 | 100-62 |
| 2024 | 101-61 | TBD |
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