The start of Spring Training ZiPS projections for the 2023 season predicts the Los Angeles Dodgers will finish tied atop the National League West with the San Diego Padres at a 91-71 record for both clubs.
The analytical model takes into account player projections and playing time, then generates a million versions of each team based on each player’s range of probable outcomes. The system was designed by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs and is updated every year in an attempt to create more accurate outcomes.
In the previous ZiPS projections from before the start of the offseason, the Dodgers were projected to win 91 games as well. This means the projection system feels they did not do anything in the offseason to significantly impact their 2023 outlook.
However, in the previous projection, it had the Padres winning 87 games and finishing second in the NL West, which gives them an improvement of four wins in the latest update.
Szymborski writes both the Dodgers and Padres are great teams, but have real downside concerns based on some lineup questions and with their rotations.
Despite their tied record, the Padres have slightly higher playoff odds than the Dodgers, at 75.5% compared to 74.2%, and a higher chance to win the division at 37.2% to 36%. Additionally, the Dodgers trail the Padres in World Series win percentage, at 7.5% compared to 7.9%.
Surprisingly, the San Francisco Giants are projected for 88 wins, five more than their pre-offseason mark and seven more than last season, along with a 59.3% playoff chance.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are projected to finish at .500 with 81 wins and 26.3% playoff odds, while the Colorado Rockies are the only team below in the division at 66-96 with a playoff percentage of less than 1%.
Overall in the NL, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are projected to tie with 94 wins each, and the St. Louis Cardinals are projected for 91 wins for the top spot in the Central.
The Braves also have the highest World Series win percentage in the NL at 12%, while the Mets are second at 10.9%.
2023 PECOTA projections favor Dodgers
The 2023 PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus have the Dodgers remaining NL West champions by going 97-65 to finish ahead of the Padres, trailing only the New York Yankees (99-63) for the best record and scoring the most runs in baseball this season.
PECOTA anticipates the Dodgers’ biggest threat in the NL coming from the New York Mets, who are projected to have a 97-65 record as well. The Padres are forecasted to go 94-68.
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