The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to have a busy offseason with 11 players in free agency, including multiple stars and franchise cornerstones.
Their list of free agents for the 2021 offseason includes pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel, Jimmy Nelson, Danny Duffy and Cole Hamels, and position players Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Albert Pujols and Steven Souza Jr.
The group of free agents may grow to include Joe Kelly if the Dodgers decline their team option and pay a $4 million buyout, which appears likely.
Meanwhile, one of the first steps this offseason is to decide which players should receive a qualifying offer. If a player receives the qualifying offer from their club, they can choose to accept or decline it.
If they accept, they would be signing a one-year contract worth $18.4 million. But if they decline it and leave in free agency, their former team would get a compensation draft pick for the 2022 MLB Draft while the signing team would lose a pick. They could also decline and choose to re-sign with their club, which would not affect the Draft.
The deadline for teams to extend the qualifying offer is Sunday, Nov. 7 — the same day free agents are free to sign with any club. Players who receive the one-year offer have until Wednesday, Nov. 17, to accept or decline it.
In order to be eligible to receive a qualifying offer, players must have spent the entire season on the team’s roster and they can only receive it once in their career.
For the Dodgers, that rule makes Scherzer, Duffy, Hamels and Pujols ineligible as they were all acquired midseason. Jansen also is excluded because he was extended the qualifying offer in 2016.
Will the Dodgers extend a qualifying offer?
Dodgers who are eligible and candidates to be extended a qualifying offer are Kershaw, Seager and Taylor.
Kershaw battled injuries this past season but still managed to have a solid year. In 121.2 innings, he pitched to a 3.55 ERA and 3.00 FIP while striking out 10.65 batters per nine and walking just 1.55 per nine.
Kershaw presumably would decline the qualifying offer and look for a multi-year contract with a higher average annual value than $18.4 million.
However, it would be incredibly surprising if the Dodgers aren’t able to work out a deal with him.
Meanwhile, Seager has set himself up for a massive contract and will be one of the most popular players in free agency.
At only 27 years old, Seager could be in search of a contract at least seven or eight years in length and upwards of $300 million. So while he effectively is a lock to receive the qualifying offer, he is all but guaranteed to reject it as well.
The group of shortstops on the open market is talented and deep, but Seager stands at the top with a career .297/.367/.504 batting line and 132 wRC+ while also hitting from the left side, unlike the rest of the available middle infielders.
Seager reportedly was offered a contract extension during the season, so it would not be surprising if the sides continue trying to work out a long-term deal.
However, with Trea Turner in the fold, the Dodgers might decide it is best to let Seager go to the highest bidder.
Taylor was named to his first All-Star Game this year but has consistently been an incredibly valuable player going back to his breakout season in 2017.
He is a career .261/.337/.443 hitter with a 111 wRC+, but his versatility on defense truly makes Taylor stand out.
If Taylor feels he will get less than $18.4 million per year on the market, he could accept the qualifying offer, but it is unlikely.
His best comparison is Ben Zobrist, who signed a four-year, $56 million deal ($14 million AAV) with the Chicago Cubs in 2015 as a 34 year old.
Taylor will likely be looking at a similar deal, but he should be able to get a five- or six-year contract with a higher average annual value because of his age.
The Dodgers already considered offering him a contract extension and after losing Kiké Hernandez last winter, L.A. would be smart to keep Taylor around.
Among the remaining Dodgers free agents, none of them figure to receive a qualifying offer.
Knebel battled back from an injury and had a good season while he was on the field, but $18.4 million for a setup man is too steep even for a team with deep pockets.
The Dodgers might still want to bring Knebel back, but he also pitched well enough where another team would take a shot on him as their closer at a discounted rate from the top closers.
Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the 2022 season, but a team could look to sign him to a two-year deal while he recovers — like the Dodgers did last offseason with Tommy Kahnle.
Souza Jr. ended up taking more postseason at-bats than the Dodgers would have liked due to all the injuries, but he is more likely to sign a Minor League contract with an invite to spring training from some team who wants to add organizational depth.
If the Dodgers decline Kelly’s option, that would make him eligible to receive the qualifying offer. However, they wouldn’t decline a $12 million option just to turn around and offer him more pay.
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