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Dodger Blue > Dodgers News > Updated 2020 PECOTA Projections: Dodgers To Finish With Best Record
Dodgers NewsFeatured

Updated 2020 PECOTA Projections: Dodgers To Finish With Best Record

Matt Borelli
July 14, 2020
4 Min Read
Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports
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Prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic bringing Major League Baseball to a halt, plenty of excitement surrounded the Los Angeles Dodgers in Spring Training.

All eyes were on Mookie Betts and David Price, both of whom were acquired from the Boston Red Sox in February. The blockbuster trade indicated L.A. was serious about ending a three-plus decades long World Series drought.

The additions of Betts and Price further bolstered what was already considered one of the deepest rosters in all of baseball. They were part of an offseason haul that additionally included the likes of Blake Treinen, Alex Wood and Jimmy Nelson.

To no surprise, the Dodgers emerged as betting World Series favorites. Baseball Prospectus initially pegged the club to win 102.5 games — based on 1,000 simulations — which was good for the most in the Majors.

However, nearly four months of the regular season have since been wiped out due to concerns over the coronavirus. It wasn’t until the end of June in which MLB commissioner implemented a shortened, 60-game schedule that begins on July 23.

Despite the campaign being reduced by almost two-thirds and Price opting out, Baseball Prospectus still projects the Dodgers to win a Major League-best 38 games en route to an eighth consecutive National League West title.

The Dodgers’ 38-win total is five more than PECOTA has forecasted for any other team in the NL. The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds are forecast to win the NL East and NL Central, respectively, with 33 wins apiece.

Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA model anticipates the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs (32 wins) securing the two NL Wild Card spots.

For a second consecutive year, the NL West is slated to be a heap of mediocrity. The San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants are all projected to fall short of postseason contention.

As for the American League, the New York Yankees and Houston Astros lead the way with 36 wins each. The Minnesota Twins fell just short of that total with 35 wins, while the Cleveland Indians (33), Tampa Bay Rays (32), Oakland Athletics (32), Chicago White Sox (31), L.A. Angels (31) and Boston Red Sox (30) are also expected to reach the 30-win mark.

Dodgers benefitting from intrasquad games

With clubs hosting Sumer Camps at their home ballpark, it has eliminated the possibility of playing Cactus League games. In lieu of that, the Dodgers have relied on near-daily intrasquad scrimmages.

“I think it’s actually pretty comparable in the sense that guys are still building up their legs as far as playing innings, taking the at-bats regardless of who’s wearing the uniform across from you, and the pitchers running up pitch counts,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said when asked to compare intrasquad play to Cactus League.

“As far as that evaluation, very comparable. Now you’re talking about performance, which certainly matters. Maybe more so right now for some guys than others. Guys are still preparing the right way, so as long as you’re playing, competing and have that mindset to get better, you can still evaluate.”

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TAGGED:Los Angeles DodgersPECOTA Projections
ByMatt Borelli
Matt Borelli covers the Los Angeles Dodgers as a staff writer for Dodger Blue and holds similar responsibilities for Lakers Nation, a sister site with an emphasis on the Los Angeles Lakers. He also contributes to RamsNewswire.com and RaidersNewswire.com. An avid fantasy sports player, Matt is a former 2014 MLB Beat the Streak co-champion. His favorite Dodgers moment, among a list of many, is Clayton Kershaw's no-hitter against the Colorado Rockies in 2014. Follow him on Twitter: @mcborelli.
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