Over the last week-plus the Los Angeles Dodgers limped to a 7-3 record (tied for the best mark in baseball during that stretch) while maintaining a 4.5-game lead over the San Diego Padres in the National League West.
Unfortunately for the Dodgers, the second-best team in the NL resides in their own division, and yet, with just a few weeks remaining in the season nobody is too worried. At this point all that matters is trying to figure out (in vain) who the Dodgers will be playing in a three-game Wild Card Series.
Three Up
1) Looking at Baseball Savant’s “expected statistics” page for hitters to see how well the Dodgers are doing with underlying indicators brought about plenty of surprises.
Essentially, what these stats represent is a combination of quality of contact, strikeouts and walks. It sounds complicated, but the general idea isn’t: if you hit the ball hard (and on the barrel), don’t strikeout and draw walks, your numbers should be good.
Of course for the Dodgers, Corey Seager being second in the league is no surprise with an expected weighted on-base average of .482 (one spot ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr.) — but after that it gets interesting. If you lower the minimum plate appearances to allow Will Smith to qualify, he’d be fourth in all of baseball (.463) —- still ahead of Tatis.
But here’s the best part: Justin Turner is 13th among qualified hitters (.423), Mookie Betts is 27th (.399), Max Muncy is 44th (.385), Chris Taylor is 70th (.367), Cody Bellinger is 75th (.364) and Joc Pederson is 94th (.358). What does it mean?
Well, if you take the expected number and subtract the actual number, it means Turner, Seager, Pederson, Muncy and Bellinger are all among the 25 unluckiest players in baseball.
That their underlying metrics indicate they should be more successful than they are. And, well, if that ever rights itself, watch out.
2) The Cat Man continues to deliver for the Dodgers, not only filling up the box score but looking the part as well.
Five starts in, Tony Gonsolin’s ERA is 0.76 and he’s striking out more than one batter per inning. What is fascinating is looking at his pitch mix, because for a guy whose fastball can touch 97 mph, he throws it just 44% of the time.
Gonsolin’s secondary has been a nasty split-change that he throws about 37%, and his new slider (13%) has seemed to round out the repertoire in helping keep hitters honest.
For a while the question was whether Gonsolin deserved a spot in the five-man rotation, but at this point, it’s hard not to wonder if he isn’t the Dodgers’ No. 3 starter.
3) Gavin Lux’s numbers haven’t quite come around yet, but signs are starting to trend in the right direction. In the month of September he’s just 2-for-16, but has drawn four walks in that stretch as well.
The big moment for him, however, was a walk he drew against Daniel Bard on Sunday night. Lux had faced Bard on Saturday and struck out. Heading into Sunday’s at-bat, Lux was 0-for-4 in the game and he quickly fell behind 0-2, but he battled.
After fouling off the third pitch, Lux took two balls outside the zone, fouled off two more, took a ball in the dirt, fouled off another and then took a slider for ball four. It was a 10-pitch plate appearance that gave the Dodgers runners at first and second with two outs in the bottom of the ninth in a one-run game.
Unfortunately, Seager couldn’t cash in, but if you’re looking for positive signs in Lux’s development, that was a huge one.
Three Down
1) There is a sentiment in this space that Mookie Betts is a legitimate NL MVP candidate — maybe even the frontrunner — but alas, Tatis exists. To clarify: Betts is a legitimate MVP candidate in the sense that he should finish at least second.
But he is not a legitimate candidate in the sense that the race for first is anywhere close.
Heading into play Tuesday, Betts trails Tatis in WAR, home runs, runs, RBI, stolen bases, on-base percentage and slugging. The only major category he has a lead in is batting average. Mookie has been great, but Tatis has been better.
2) The Dodgers finally broke their streak of not losing a series this season, when they dropped two out of three to the Rockies over the weekend. Truthfully, there is a positive to this happening.
The last thing this team needed was a statistic like that hanging over their heads. A streak longing to be broken in a playoff series. And hey, if it means the Dodgers are more likely to face the Rockies in the Wild Card Series? Even better
3) Caleb Ferguson has been one of the most pleasant surprises for the Dodgers this season, establishing himself as a borderline elite reliever. Unfortunately, the last week was not kind to him.
After allowing just one home run (and one run altogether) in July and August, Ferguson has allowed three homers (five runs) in three appearances in September, raising his ERA from 0.63 to 3.31 in the process.
But here’s the good news: like the Dodger hitters, the underlying metrics love Ferguson still. Two of the home runs he allowed last week didn’t even have exit velocities over 100 mph. And and if you look at the pitching version of the expected weighted on-base average mentioned above, Ferguson is second in all of baseball.
In fact, comparing his expected numbers to actual results, Ferguson is the fifth-most unlucky pitcher in baseball.
Of course, all of this is small sample size, but from my perspective there’s not much to worry about quite yet.
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