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Dodger Blue > Dodgers News > The Curious Case Of Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda
Dodgers News

The Curious Case Of Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda

Jeff Spiegel
April 28, 2017
5 Min Read
Kenta-maeda-justin-turner
Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
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By all accounts, Kenta Maeda’s rookie season with the Los Angeles Dodgers was a massive success. In 32 starts (a team high), Maeda posted an 3.48 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and struck out more than one batter per inning. He also finished third in 2016 National League Rookie of the Year voting.

All of this after signing an eight-year contract that could net Maeda anywhere from $25 million to $106 million. The deal was heavily incentivized due to a physical revealing ‘irregularities’ in his right elbow. Heading into 2017, Maeda was one of only three starting pitchers who found themselves outside of any real ‘competition’ for a spot in the rotation.

As a result, expectations were high for the 29-year-old. In four starts this season, however, Maeda has pitched just 19 innings, posting an inflated 8.05 ERA due in part to having allowed seven home runs.

So which Maeda should the Dodgers expect over the next six to seven months? Will his ERA return to 2016 levels over the course of the season? Or has the league caught on to something that they’ll continue to exploit?

To answer these questions, let’s look at some comparisons between 2016 and 2017.

  • In 2016, Maeda had a .283 BABIP. So far this season, that number is .315
  • In 2016, Maeda generated ground balls 44 percent of the time. That’s dropped to 27.6 percent in 2017
  • In 2016, only 11.8 percent of fly balls allowed by Maeda resulted in home runs. That’s nearly doubled to 22.6 percent
  • In 2016, Maeda averaged 9.17 strikeouts per nine innings. That number is exactly 9.00 heading into Friday’s start against the Philadelphia Phillies
  • In 2016, Maeda’s fastball had an average velocity of 90 mph. In 2017, it’s up a notch, at 91.3 mph
  • In 2016, Maeda’s slider had an average velocity of 81.4 mph. That’s now increased to 82.9 mph
  • In 2016, Maeda’s curveball had an average velocity of 72.5 mph. Now it’s at 73.5 mph
  • In 2016, Maeda’s changeup had an average velocity of 82.5 mph. It’s another pitch that’s increased in velocity, now 83.4 mph
  • In 2016, Maeda induced ‘soft contact’ 20 percent of the time. In 2017, he’s inducing soft contact at a 13.1 percent clip

That’s obviously a lot to digest, and quite honestly, it may very well not paint a clearer picture of Maeda’s struggles this season..

On one hand, you look at BABIP and pitch velocity, and there’s reason for some optimism. Is it just bad luck? Why would his velocity increase and his effectiveness decrease?

On the flip side, the reason for concern most clearly lies in the fact that Maeda is allowing fly balls almost 20 percent more often. And those fly balls are leaving the yard twice as often.

Obviously, the HR/FB rate isn’t sustainable and is bound to regress toward being more average. But the fact that he’s allowing more fly balls and more solid contact is definitely concerning.

The final bit of concern stems from looking at Maeda’s splits from last year. In the first half of 2016, Maeda’s ERA was 2.95. But in the second half, his ERA jumped to 4.25 (.296 BABIP).

When digging even deeper, you’ll find this: Maeda hasn’t had a start in which he shut out the opponent since May 28, 2016. He only has four such starts in his career — three of which came within his first four starts for the Dodgers.

So, what’s the verdict? Should we be buying Maeda stock while it’s low? Or is the new Kenta Maeda the real Kenta Maeda?

There may be real reason for concern. The velocity is encouraging, and honestly, confusing, but everything else is fairly scary. It can be safely presumed Maeda’s ERA will drop below eight at some point this season, but getting it under 3.00 is not as much of a sure bet.

Friday’s start may loom large for Maeda as it pertains to his immediate future. Though, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts stopped short of saying the right-hander was pitching to remain in the rotation.

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TAGGED:Kenta MaedaLos Angeles Dodgers
ByJeff Spiegel
Jeff Spiegel was raised in California but currently resides in Portland, Oregon. After graduating from the University of Oregon, he worked in sports before entering journalism full time — first as a Sports Reporter and then as the Associate Editor of a local newspaper. Online, he has been writing about both the Dodgers and Raiders since 2012 — having written for DodgersNation.com and SBNation.com prior to joining both DodgerBlue.com and RaidersNation.com. He left full-time journalism in 2012 to become a pastor. Jeff can be found on Twitter at @JeffSpiegel. Favorite Dodger I'm going past and present (sort of) on this one. Recently, I was a die hard Yasiel Puig guy. The energy he played with was amazing and the hope and expectation he brought every single night was captivating. Whether it was a rifle from the warning track to throw a guy out at second, an aggressive bat flip or licking his bat, I was here for ALL of the Yasiel Puig era. Past tense, I'd go with Eric Gagné. This wasn't so much about Gagné himself as it was the experience of cheering for him. Yes, he was on steroids — but the dude was unlike any pitcher I've ever seen — he was NASTY. I still stand by the claim that if I needed one out and my life depended on it, and could choose any pitcher from any era to get me that out, I'm taking roided up Gagné in a heartbeat. Favorite Dodger Moment A few jump to mind immediately. Being born in November of 1988, I missed the last World Series by weeks — which also meant I didn't get to see the Dodgers win a playoff game until I was nearly 16. They had made the playoffs in 1995 and 1996, but were swept both times. In 2004, though, I got to see them win behind a complete game shutout from Jose Lima, and that was pretty freaking special. The next in-person moment that came to mind was the Manny Ramirez bobblehead night pinch-hit grand slam from 2009. Vin Scully claimed it was the loudest he had heard Dodger Stadium in 20 years, and it's hard to disagree. As far as ones I didn't get to see live, I'll throw one more out there: the back-to-back-to-back-to-back home runs that tied a game against the Padres in 2006 (plus the walk-off from Nomar Garciaparra in extra innings) was an all-timer. Obviously, the impending Dodgers World Series will quickly jump to the top of this list...
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