One of the biggest questions surrounding Major League Baseball this offseason is what does the future hold for Japanese ace Roki Sasaki.
Currently under team control by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball, there has been speculation Sasaki could make the jump to MLB for the 2025 season.
However, there are some complications surrounding that. At just 23 years old, Sasaki would be subject to MLB’s international signing rules and would see his contract strictly limited and likely costing himself hundreds of millions.
That is the path Shohei Ohtani followed with the Los Angeles Angels, and he was unable to reach his record pay-day until signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers last offseason.
If Sasaki was to wait until he turns 25 or completed six years in the NPB, such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sasaki would be eligible to sign any contract with any team. Considering he would be highly coveted on the free agent market, Sasaki potentially would surpass the contract Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers.
Despite the potential money involved in his decision, Sasaki has made it known his goal is to pitch in MLB, and he may want that sooner rather than later.
To become an MLB free agent, Sasaki would have to be posted by the Marines, and that’s a decision that could come within the next week, according to international reporter Francys Romero:
The Chiba Lotte Marines' decision on Roki Sasaki is expected to be announced in the next few days.
Several executives believe it could be as soon as this week.
— Francys Romero (@francysromeroFR) November 7, 2024
If Sasaki is posted, every team in MLB would check in on him and make their pitch, but the consensus around the league is the Dodgers would be heavily favored to sign him. The Dodgers also have the largest remaining international signing bonus pool left at $2.5 million, meaning they could make the largest offer to him.
Unfortunately for the Dodgers and every other club around MLB, that decision from the Marines could also be against posting him to keep him in their organization for at least another season.
Posting Sasaki early would hurt the Marines, not just by losing a star player, but also because the posting fee they receive would be significantly smaller than if they posted him when he was 25.
The decision may ultimately be based on how much leverage Sasaki has, and he has already declined a contract offer from them.
Ohtani forced his way to MLB early by using a clause in his contract that allowed him to make the decision on when he was posted that he agreed to when he first signed with the Nippon-Ham Fighters. It’s unclear if Sasaki has a similar clause, but there is some belief among executives that he does.
However, Sasaki reportedly asked the Marines to post him for MLB free agency last offseason, but the team declined his request and he returned on a one-year deal.
The two sides may be in a bit of a battle over his future, but MLB teams eagerly await the outcome.
In 18 starts this past season, Sasaki carried a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 129 strikeouts to 32 walks in 111 innings.
Roki Sasaki receiving guidance from Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s agent
Sasaki has been receiving some direction from Yamamoto’s agent, Joel Wolfe. Sasaki has spoken fondly of Yamamoto in the past, which could be insight into potentially signing with Wolfe of Wasserman as his agent.
Wolfe also negotiated Yamamoto’s deal with the Dodgers, and L.A. has favored working with the Wasserman Group over the Boras Corporation more often than not.
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