In less than two weeks, pitchers and catchers will report to Arizona and the 2018 Los Angeles Dodgers will officially begin their march toward repeating as National League champions and reaching the World Series for a second consecutive year.
It’s crazy to think that we’re already at this point, but with the bitter taste of defeat still present, it also seems like baseball can’t come soon enough.
This offseason we’ve set out to rank every player on the Dodgers 40-man roster. It’s not based on trade value or future performance, but on one criteria alone: a player’s ability to contribute in 2018 alone.
If you’ve missed any of the previous rankings, you can review them out here:
So, without further ado, let’s get to the top six players who currently project to be on the Dodgers roster come Opening Day of the 2018 season.
5. Chris Taylor, IF/OF
Just imagine the look on your face if someone told you that Chris Taylor would find himself inside the top-five of this list 12 months ago.
Yes — THAT Chris Taylor — the one who didn’t even make the Opening Day roster.
In fact, it’s funny to think back to Spring Training last year knowing what we do now simply because Taylor tore the cover off the ball in Cactus League play. In 22 games, he slashed .354/.483/.500 while stealing four bases in five tries.
At the time, most wrote it off as just another example of a random player performing well in the spring.
And then Taylor hit .288/.354/.496 in 568 plate appearances at the big league level, including 21 home runrs (20 more than he had hit in his previous 318 Major League plate appearances), 85 runs scored, 72 RBI and 17 stolen bases.
Oh, and he did all that while seeing time at second base, shortstop, third base, left field and center field.
When it comes to measuring Taylor’s value, it’s really difficult to figure out where to start. Is it the fact that he transformed into a prototypical leadoff hitter? Is it his defensive versatility? Is it his power? His attitude?
In this case, the answer is simple: yes.
5. Yasiel Puig, OF
Oh, if we could return to the days when radio analysts were telling us that we had seen the last of Yasiel Puig in a Dodgers uniform. That of course was on the heels of Puig’s demotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City in August 2016.
They’d tell us that his attitude was too big of an issue, that he’d never learn and that — oh by the way — his talent was diminishing anyways.
Puig’s response? To hit .263/.346/.487 with 28 home runs and provide elite defense in right field over 152 games.
It’s actually funny to look at Puig and Taylor next to one another for a number of reasons. For starters, look at their slash lines from last year:
Puig: .263/.346/.487
Taylor: .288/.354/.496
They’re nearly identical. Puig had 28 home runs, Taylor 21. Puig had 15 stolen bases, Taylor had 17. Puig scored 72 runs, Taylor scored 85. Puig knocked in 74 RBI, Taylor had 72.
Puig is arguably the best defensive right fielder in baseball, while Taylor’s defensive value is the product of above-average performance just about everywhere. At some point you realize the dilemma I found myself in when trying to rank these two.
And that’s precisely why they tied for fifth. If forced to choose, Puig would receive the nod only because his track record is a bit longer. And because it’s possible we haven’t yet seen peak Puig yet.
4. Justin Turner, 3B
If not for his playoff heroics, there’s a genuine wonder whether many people would appreciate Justin Turner for what he is. He’s so steady and under-the-radar in his demeanor that it feels easy to forget we’re watching one of the best hitters (and fielders) in baseball.
In 2017, Turner had the best year of his career — hitting an absurd .322/.415/.530 with 21 home runs. His batting averaged placed him fifth in the league, his on-base percentage fourth, his 151 wRC+ was good for seventh, and WAR was 14th.
Pretty remarkable for someone the Dodgers signed to a Minor League contract.
Defensively, Turner remains excellent as well — having been nominated in 2016 for a Gold Glove; a nomination he was probably just as deserving of last season.
Part of what makes Turner so great, however, is his demeanor. His calmness seems to spread throughout the team — as if no moment is too big, or worth getting to anxious about. Really, it’s what makes him such a great playoff hitter (one of the best ever, in fact).
With Adrian Gonzalez officially gone, it appears as if Turner has become the defacto Team Captain — which, in reality, is pretty much the best-case scenario.
3. Cody Bellinger, 1B
It’s funny to think about how much this list would have changed from a year ago. There was Taylor’s miraculous campaign, Puig’s turnaround, and Cody Bellinger’s emergence.
The reality is that this top five features three players that no one would have guessed would be here just 12 months ago. And yet, as highlighted throughout this series, that’s the beauty of the Dodgers’ depth.
As for Bellinger, what can you say? The kid (he’s just 22) hit 39 home runs, batted .267/.352/.581 and played fantastic defense — all as a rookie. He also led the team in runs, RBI and slugging percentage.
Oh, and Bellinger did that despite missing the first quarter of the season waiting for his chance. With all this in mind, the next question you ask is a natural one: is it sustainable?
Interestingly enough in looking at Bellinger’s splits, there is some reason for optimism. In the second half of last season, his average and OBP both went up despite a decrease in his power (25 homers in the first half, 14 in the second).
Of course, the real reason for any sort of pessimism would be his postseason performance, when Bellinger hit just .219 with 29 strikeouts in 67 plate appearances.
So, what gives? The postseason, and World Series in particular, is a bad place to start when making projections for a number of reasons.
Obviously, the pressure is far greater but you also have to keep in mind that Bellinger was facing the best of the best for a few weeks straight. He’s not going to see Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers every day in 2018, which will make life much easier.
While I don’t expect Bellinger to match his home run total from last year, I do expect his hitting to improve as he settles into the professional game — which is pretty remarkable, all things considered.
2. Corey Seager, SS
It’s easy to forget that Seager is just 23 despite having 329 professional games under his belt and having accumulated 14.6 WAR. And yet, it’s all true.
After a monster rookie season (.308/.365/.512 with 26 homers), Seager did have a bit of a regression in his sophomore season. That said, a ‘regression’ for Seager still left him amongst the elite middle infielders in all of baseball, as he hit .295/.375/.479 with 22 home runs.
Of all qualified shortstops, only Francisco Lindor posted a higher WAR (5.9 to 5.7) and only Zack Cosart had a higher wRC+ (141 to 127).
While Seager’s bat gets plenty of attention, it should be noted that he is (at worst) an above-average defender at one of the most difficult positions on the field. For all these reasons, Seager gets the No. 2 spot on this list.
1. Clayton Kershaw, SP
I know he only pitches once every five days. I know he’s nearly 30. I know he’s coming off the second straight year with less than 30 starts. I know he posted the lowest WAR in his career since 2009.
And yet, Kershaw is still the best player on the Dodgers, and I’m not sure it’s all that close. You know how I know that? Because he posted a 2.31 ERA last season (best in the NL) in what many describe as a ‘down year.’
For the past seven seasons, Kershaw has finished in the top five in Cy Young voting — having won the award three times, and having a legitimate case to have won in every other year but one. If anything, he’s being punished for having won so many times.
And the two years before this streak began featured ERAs of 2.79 and 2.91 with 30-plus starts in both seasons.
The reality is, the only thing stopping Kershaw at this point is his health, although there are some troubling numbers that popped up last season. In 2017, Kershaw’s HR/9 popped above 1.00 for the first time in his career (the 1.18 mark was nearly twice as high as any other year since 2008).
Another troubling sign was the continued decrease in ground ball percentage — a number that has gone down each of the past three seasons. Of course, it’s easy to see how these numbers are related.
All that said, we’re talking about Clayton Kershaw — one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history. He’s not ‘young’ anymore, but he’s also not old — still firmly in his prime and showing very few signs of slowing down anytime soon.
