The general manager meetings began Monday in Boca Raton, Fla. and free agency is upon us. While the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t meet expectations in the postseason, they don’t have many holes to fill.
Mainly, they’ll need to make decisions on their own free agents, choosing to re-sign familiar faces, pursue veterans on the market or look within the organization for replacements.
Ideally, the front office would love to go with young, homegrown talent, but the farm system isn’t quite ready to begin consistently producing Major Leaguers. Let’s take a look at some of the top hitters and pitchers on the market and see how they fit in Los Angeles.
Hitters
- Jason Heyward
Heyward was included in a surprise trade last winter, when the Atlanta Braves sent the local product to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Shelby Miller.
Many assumed the Cardinals would turn the 25 year old around from a somewhat disappointing 2014 season, and they did. Heyward batted .293/.359/.439 and produced a 6.0 fWAR, good for 11th in the Majors.
What makes Heyward such an attractive free agent is his age. While most players reach free agency around age 30, Heyward is just 26, meaning he’s in his prime and there’s a non-zero chance that he may improve offensively. His calling card is his elite defense in right field.
The main question is, how long can Heyward, a player whose value relies heavily on defense, be an All-Star quality right fielder?
The Hardball Times suggests a player peaks defensively from ages 24-28, which is around the same time a player’s offense peaks as well.
Heyward’s offensive value in 2015 wasn’t so much a result of mind-blowing numbers but a referendum on the league’s depressed offensive environment — MLB batters averaged a .722 on-base plus slugging percentage.
However, his approach was good last year, as he made continued improvements to both his strikeout and contact rates.
Should the Dodgers gamble on Heyward sustaining his defensive value beyond the next two or three seasons when research says otherwise? Can he tap into his enormous power potential?
These are difficult questions to answer and should lead to a shorter term contract than one would generally assume a 26-year-old star would receive. Anything over five years would come with some pretty heavy risk, and Heyward could get another big contract at age 31.
- Justin Upton
Interesting note: the first and second overall picks from the 2005 draft are free agents this year. Upton, taken No. 1 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, has had a tumultuous career so far.
First, he began to establish himself as an offensive force in Arizona before abruptly being dealt to Atlanta prior to the 2013 season. Then, he was dealt to the San Diego Padres last offseason.
Petco didn’t completely sap his power, as Upton clubbed 26 home runs. He swings and misses plenty, but when he connects, it’s a thing of beauty. A five-tool talent coming out of high school, he’s not a power hitting corner outfielder who’s found a home in left field.
His defensive runs saved in left last year was 8, his highest mark since 2011. At just 28 years old, he has a couple years left before getting whacked by the regression stick.
A five-year deal signs him through his conventional “peak,” which is generally seen as ages 28-32. However, his defense could quickly drop off, so he’ll need to continue to hit for power and get on base to maintain his value.
That shouldn’t be difficult and he should have no problem securing a long term contract. I’m sure he’ll be happy to spend half his home games outside of San Diego.
- Yoenis Cespedes
And then there’s Yoenis Cespedes. He’s is the opposite of Heyward on offense. He swings and misses a lot, hits for power, doesn’t walk and he strikes out.
However, that doesn’t mean Cespedes is not a good player. In fact, his fWAR of 6.7 in 2015 ranked seventh in baseball, just above Heyward, who was 11th.
Miraculously, Cespedes has improved dramatically on defense over the past two years. He’s gone from someone who could be considered a liability to worth about one win each of the last two seasons.
Plus, he has the best outfield arm in baseball and has proven he’s not a complete disaster in center field. Cespedes, who just turned 30, should receive a contract in the five year range, with an annual average value approaching $30 million.
He offers the added bonus of not costing a draft pick, since he was ineligible for a qualifying offer due to his being traded during the season.
With a team that’s aiming to “go young,” dedicating more than $100 million to a player who’s past his peak may not fit into the Dodgers’ plans. However, this front office has been full of surprises.
- Ben Zobrist
Zobrist just went and got himself a ring in Kansas City and is in line for a decent payday. However, he turns 35 in May and the two qualities that used to separate him, his defensive capability and versatility, are relics of the past.
Still, he offers the high contact, high walk rate package that analytics love. Again, the club wants to go younger, so while Zobrist is approaching the twilight of his career, he could still provide a productive bridge to whatever prospect is in the wings.
A two or three-year deal should get it done and, like Cespedes, Zobrist doesn’t cost a draft pick.
- Alex Gordon
Heyward is the ghost of Alex Gordon past. Gordon, who turns 32 in February, saw his defensive value crater this year. After posting four consecutive years of a DRS equal or greater than 16, this year’s number was just seven.
Granted, it was fewer innings, but he’s at the age where you begin to expect that type of decline. Offensively, he’s similar to Heyward, though he makes less contact.
And, at age 32, you’re going to expect the offense to begin to drop off. Gordon would be a nice backup plan to Heyward, as he’d cost less in terms of money and years, though he would cost a draft pick.
Re-sign: Howie Kendrick
Hey, remember him? He hit .295/.336/.409 and turned 32 in July, but someone out there will give him two or three years after Kendrick presumably rejects the qualifying offer. It could be the Dodgers.
The downside? He posted a career worst defensive runs saved this season at -12, and his poor defense was evident even to casual observers. Still, a slim infield market makes him an attractive short term option.
And if Kendrick doesn’t re-sign, the Dodgers will receive a draft pick. Not a bad consolation prize.
CONTINUE READING: Pitching Options Available To The Dodgers Via Free Agency
Pitchers
- David Price
Now, now, I’m sure you were expecting Greinke in the top spot, but hear me out. Price is younger, by nearly two years, and has posted equal or better FIPs in each of the past four seasons.
Some may be concerned about the team having two lefties at the top of the rotation, but if Price can get righties out, which he’s proven he’s able to do, it’s not a problem.
His trade to Toronto means there’s no qualifying offer attached, which is icing on the cake. The question is how much to give him.
I believe the bidding will start at five years, $150 million, and whoever gets the furthest from that wins his services. Obviously, long-term contracts to pitchers is a risky business, but if anyone’s worth it, it’s Price.
- Zack Greinke
Greinke, who recently celebrated his 32nd birthday and also cut his long hair, opted out of the final three years of his contract to become a free agent.
While some athletes give the cliché of “I just want to play for a winner” or “I want to find a place that feels like home,” Greinke makes no apologies for the fact that he wants to play for the team that will pay him.
And that honesty is refreshing. Now, it’s time for the Dodgers to pony up. While 32 may be a scary number for some pitchers, Greinke is a phenomenal athlete and has made at least 28 starts in every season since 2008.
His newfound reliance on a changeup is an added bonus, as it puts less stress on his elbow when compared to throwing a slider. He’s an excellent fielder and offers some of the best bat flips in baseball at the plate.
It comes down to money. Do you want to give him five years and hope he’s still productive when he’s 36? Is he going to be worth $30 million a year in his mid-30s?
With most pitchers, these are huge red flags. However, Greinke is one of a kind.
- Johnny Cueto
The third Royal on this list, Cueto was also traded in season and won’t require the Dodgers to forfeit a draft pick.
Some said Cueto lost money after the trade as he struggled through the end of the season. He proceeded to turn in prolific playoff starts, including a complete game in the World Series, erasing any doubts that he’d lost his swagger.
Cueto is similar to Greinke in that he employs a fairly deep arsenal, changes speeds, mixes his pitches and depends more on location than simply missing bats. He’s also a solid defender and does not allow stolen bases.
Cueto turns 30 in February, so a five-year contract is likely the reasonable expectation. He should get less annual average value than Price and Greinke but six years and $150 million doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibilities. Not bad for the third best starter on the market.
- Jordan Zimmermann
Zimmermann is yet another alumnus from the University of Tommy John, undergoing the procedure in 2009. Luckily, he’s been pretty much injury-free since returning in 2010, making at least 32 starts in each of the last five seasons.
He relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it 62.5 percent of the time last season, which is a substantial drop from 2014 but still ranking in the Top 20 in baseball.
Zimmermann had his best season in 2014, when he threw his fastball 70 percent of the time. That might be something to watch going forward.
Like Price and Cueto, Zimmermann turns 30 next year so a five or six year deal makes sense. He’s coming off a down season, so he’ll likely be the cheapest of the bunch. He doesn’t profile as an ace but would be a very strong No. 2 starter.
- Jeff Samardzija
The real wild card in this year’s free agent pitching market is The Shark. After establishing himself as a frontline starter in 2014, Samardzija went to the Chicago White Sox in the offseason and wasn’t the same last year.
His strikeout rate plummeted to 6.86 per nine innings and he posted an ERA of nearly 5.00. What complicates matters more is the fact that the Sox gave him a qualifying offer, so not only would you be betting on him bouncing back but you’d be losing a draft pick in the process.
Samardzija is almost assured not to get a contract longer than two or three years and may be better off accepting the qualifying offer, regaining his value, and testing the market next season when there aren’t so many quality arms available.
Re-Sign: Brett Anderson
The oft-injured lefty came to the club on a one-year deal and ended up being more than just a pleasant surprise. With Hyun-Jin Ryu missing the entire season and Brandon McCarthy making just four starts, Anderson provided stability in the middle of a devastated rotation.
He set career highs with 31 starts and 180.1 innings, while posting a 3.69 ERA and a 3.94 FIP.
While he’ll be just 28 in February, there still is concern over Anderson’s long term health, as he’d made just 19 starts in the Majors over the prior three seasons. He was given a qualifying offer, but there must be a team out there who’s desperate enough to give him a three year deal.
Predictions
I would be very surprised if the Dodgers didn’t sign at least two players off of this list. Most believe Greinke will be back, but it may be too much to ask that Price or Cueto join him.
On the hitting side, the Dodgers do have a crowded outfield, but that should finally be addressed this offseason.
Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier and don’t fit into the team’s long term plans. Second base should be taken care of via a short term veteran signing, without an imminent replacement on the farm.
My guess? The Dodgers re-sign Anderson and Greinke, plus bring in Zobrist.
Who do you think the Dodgers should sign? Should they go big or focus on building from within? Let me know in the comment section below or on Twitter @JaredJMassey. You can listen to Jared on the weekly Dugout Blues Podcast