Back in February, at 97.9%, FanGraphs gave the Los Angeles Dodgers the greatest chance of making the 2021 postseason, followed by division rival San Diego Padres (92.8%), the New York Yankees (92.1%), New York Mets (81.7%), and the Houston Astros (68.7%).
But even with the Dodgers struggling, 7-weeks into the season and not a lot has changed. Los Angeles is still the favorite to make the playoffs at 96.1%, ahead of San Diego (89.4%), the Mets (87.7%), and the Yankees (87.6%). That’s not to say things have not changed at all.
The Dodgers are currently in third place in the National League West, behind the surprising San Francisco Giants. Bolstered by strong starting pitching and timely hitting, the Giants are tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL’s best record at 21-14. While Los Angeles has remained a heavy favorite, the numbers have moved for San Francisco significantly.
The Giants opened the season at long +4000 odds to win the Western Division, but have cut more than cut that in half to +1800. However, despite the strong start, San Francisco still slots in behind both the defending World Series champion Dodgers and Padres in the odds. Los Angeles is 2-8 over the last 10-games, dropping their division title odds from -400 at the start of the season to -200 today. San Diego opened at +175 underdogs and is now at +250.
These changes have resulted in a lot of new money bets. Currently, the division money distribution is 34.7% on the Dodgers, 32.2% on the Padres, and 24.3% on the Giants. Because of the early season odds shifts, the Giants are currently the sportsbook’s biggest futures liability, so expect the odds to get shorter as bookmakers look to cover their exposure.
Dodgers World Series Odds
With the Dodgers beating Seattle yesterday they ended a streak of five consecutive series losses. That’s a far cry from last season where they only lost one series in the pandemic shortened season and ended with 4-straight series victories to win the 2020 World Series.
It’s early in the season but it’s hard to repeat in baseball. There hasn’t been a repeat World Series champion since 2000, but if any team could do it it is Los Angeles who have been to the World Series in 3 of the last 4 seasons and are still loaded with talent.
Currently, the Dodgers are still the concensus odds-on favorite to win the 2021 World Series at +325. The Yankees are +700, the Padres +900, the Mets +1000, and the Chicago White Sox round out the top-5 at +1300.
