After completing a blockbuster trade for Manny Machado with two weeks to spare until the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers approached the final days and hours with a clear focus on improving the bullpen.
They were linked to some of the most prominent relievers on the market, including Zach Britton and Keone Kela, who were ultimately traded to the New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates, respectfully, for hefty packages of prospects.
That forced Los Angeles to pivot elsewhere for a more cost-efficient option, leading to the acquisition of John Axford from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Minor League pitcher Corey Copping.
A free agent at season’s end, Axford was once a household name and considered among the game’s best closers. He enjoyed his finest campaign in 2011 as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers, when he recorded a career-high 46 saves with a superb 1.95 ERA over 73.2 innings pitched.
The right-hander has since adapted to a more traditional setup man role, where he is typically deployed in high-leverage situations in the seventh and eighth innings.
With the Blue Jays this season, Axford’s numbers on the surface don’t really jump out as being all that impressive. In 51 innings pitched, he posted a 4.41 ERA, 4.03 FIP and 1.25 WHIP with 50 strikeouts to 20 walks.
Digging deeper, Axford has fared much better on the road as opposed to the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Away from his home ballpark, he compiled a much more appealing 3.42 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 23.1 innings pitched, limiting the opposition to a .197/.264/.280 slash line.
When taking away American League East parks altogether, Axford’s number improve even more, albeit with a smaller sample size. In 14.2 frames outside of the division, he pitched to a 2.45 ERA and 0.48 WHIP with 14 punch outs to only two free passes (10 games).
That pattern certainly bodes well for Axford, who now gets to log the majority of his appearances in one of the league’s most friendliest ballparks for pitchers.
According to ESPN’s MLB Park Factors, Dodger Stadium is the seventh-least favorable hitting environment to produce runs at this season (0.90; 1.00 or above favors batters). For comparison, Rogers Centre ranks 20th with 0.94 runs.
Also appealing about Axford is the fact that he has generated ground balls at an above-average rate of 53.3 percent in 2018. That total already ranks second among Dodgers relievers, trailing only Scott Alexander’s mark of 71.7.
Moreover, Axford’s fastball has experienced a rejuvenation this season. It’s averaging 96.3 mph — nearly one mile faster than last year’s total of 95.3 with the Oakland Athletics.
Per FanGraphs, Axford’s fastball carries a pitch value of 3.5 this season. That’s his second-highest mark dating back to the 2012 season (10.9, 2016). To no surprise, Axford is deploying his fastball 76.3 percent of the time — the largest usage rate of his career.
The Dodgers were likely also intrigued by Axford due to his success against the opposite split this season. He is holding left-handed batters to a .145/.222/.309 slash line, in contrast to a .283/.353/.400 showing against right-handed hitters.
For comparison, the Dodgers’ go-to left-handed specialist this season, Alexander, has held left-handed hitters to a .197/.288/.254 batting line in 20.1 innings.
Securing another reliever that’s tough against southpaws could pay dividends down the stretch, when the Dodgers will potentially face the Chicago Cubs (Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber), Philadelphia Phillies (Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams) or Brewers (Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich) in the postseason.
Axford is expected to be activated in time for Friday’s series opener against the Houston Astros, and hopes that a change of scenery helps him maximize his talents as the potential bridge to closer Kenley Jansen.
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