As was the case for 2017, the Los Angeles Dodgers arguably boast the Majors’ best starting pitching depth heading into next season. Prominent players under contract include Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy.
The club’s staff extends beyond those names, with Scott Kazmir and Julio Urias figuring to contribute at some point next season as they return from lengthy injuries. Other arms such as Walker Buehler, Brock Stewart and Ross Stripling are primed to get looks as well.
That being said, the Dodgers could very well acquire an elite arm this offseason to pair with Kershaw at the top of the rotation. The club did just that at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, landing Yu Darvish from the Texas Rangers in exchange for a trio of prospects.
Now a free agent, Darvish is slated to sign one of the winter’s largest contracts. It remains to be seen if the Dodgers will commit the resources to bring him back, but there are other alternatives on the table should they choose to go the free-agent route.
Jake Arrieta: The 2015 National League Cy Young winner hits free agency after an up-and-down season with the Chicago Cubs. He posted a 3.53 ERA, 4.16 FIP and 1.22 WHIP over 168.1 innings but put up elite numbers in the second half.
After the All-Star Game, Arrieta pitched to a 2.28 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 61 strikeouts over 67 innings. He allowed just one run and five hits in 10.2 innings across two postseason starts — further improving his free agency stock.
Arrieta is just one of two elite-caliber starting pitchers with Major League experience on the market, along with Darvish. The Cubs extended him a qualifying offer, which Arrieta rejected, meaning if a new team signs him they must yield some form of compensation.
The Dodgers could potentially pursue Arrieta, who figures to sign a deal just short of Darvish’s value. But the right-hander is entering his age-32 season, which could limit the club’s interest.
Los Angeles has historically shied away from inking pitchers on the wrong side of 30 to lucrative deals.
Alex Cobb: The longtime Tampa Bay Rays starter is a cheaper solution on the market for clubs that miss out on the higher-end names.
In 179.1 innings this season, Cobb posted a 3.66 ERA, 4.16 FIP and 1.22 WHIP with 128 strikeouts to 44 walks. He accumulated 2.4 WAR (Baseball-Reference) for his efforts — his highest total since the 2014 season (3.9).
Cobb won’t command a contract close to what Arrieta or Darvish fetch, which makes him an appealing option for teams in need of a rotation upgrade. However, the Rays extended Cobb a qualifying offer, which could hinder his market to some degree.
Health is a concern for tams looking to sign Cobb, as well. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015 and logged a total of 22 innings in 2016 as a September call-up.
Cobb has strong ties with Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman dating back to their days with Tampa Bay. Friedman served as the club’s general manager when Cobb was drafted in 2006 and they spent four seasons together from 2011-14.
Despite this, Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi hinted that the Dodgers will look improve its roster in the form of elite talent. While Cobb is a solid arm, it’s fair to wonder if he’d even place among the top-five on the Dodgers’ depth chart for starting pitchers.
Yu Darvish: The 31-year-old struggled during the first half with the Rangers, posting career-highs in ERA (4.01) and FIP (3.99) while striking out a career-low 9.7 batters per nine innings.
With the Dodgers, Darvish rebounded and pitched to a 3.44 ERA, 3.38 FIP and 1.15 WHIP over 49.2 innings with an improved 11.1 strikeouts per nine ratio.
He allowed just one run over his final 19.1 innings and carried that success into the NL Division Series, where he yielded one run over five innings in a win against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Darvish built on that outing and dominated the Cubs in Game 3 of the NL Championship Series, allowing one run in 6.1 frames with seven punch outs. The right-hander faltered in two World Series starts against the Houston Astros and allowed nine runs over 3.1 innings — earning losses in Game 3 and the deciding seventh contest.
Despite his World Series struggles, there won’t be a shortage of suitors for Darvish. The St. Louis Cardinals and Minnesota Twins are among teams to already express strong interest in signing him.
With the absence of a qualifying offer attached to him, Darvish is far and away the most popular option on the open market.
Unless he accepts a discount to return to Los Angeles, Darvish will likely be pitching elsewhere next season. He’s the same age as Zack Greinke when the Dodgers allowed him to sign a record deal with the Diamondbacks.
Shohei Ohtani: Arguably the most enticing free agent, Ohtani is expected to sign with a Major League club this winter after spending the previous five seasons with the Nippon-Ham Fighters in the Japan Pacific League.
Though, momentum toward his being posted took a hit and now Monday looms as an important deadline.
Ohtani is a supreme talent in the form of a two-way player. As a hitter, he owns a career slash line of .286/.358/.500 in 1,170 plate appearances, with 70 doubles, 48 home runs and 166 RBI.
On the mound, Ohtani has pitched to a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 543 career innings with 624 strikeouts — good for a 10.3 strikeouts per nine ratio. If posted by the NFighters, interested teams such as the Dodgers will submit bids upwards of $20 million.
Should a team sign Ohtani, the posting fee would then be paid to the Fighters. As it stands, he likely will not receive a signing bonus larger than $5 million. In the Dodgers’ case, they’re limited to offering a $300,000 bonus because of exceeding their international bonus pool in the previous signing period.
Speaking in general terms, Friedman said he is intrigued by the thought of a player looking to succeed in the Majors as a pitcher and hitter, further leading to speculation that the Dodgers will be a major player for the 23-year-old.
If the Dodgers are able to secure Ohtani’s services, it will be interesting to see how they deploy him over the gruesome 162-game regular season. With the club’s excellent pitching depth, he wouldn’t necessarily have to take the mound every five days.
On days where Ohtani doesn’t pitch, he could instead see some time at left field or first base and focus on hitting in the middle of the lineup.
