The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to enter the offseason with numerous key players reaching free agency. Among the notable names are closer Kenley Jansen, starting pitcher Rich Hill, second baseman Chase Utley and third baseman Justin Turner.
Given how weak the free agent market is for virtually every position except relief pitchers, many teams presumably be willing to overpay for the few impact players that become available this winter.
One scarce position in particular is the hot corner. While Turner is arguably the best position player to hit the market, barring an unforeseen contract extension that occurs within the next month, other potential free agent third basemen to join him are Luis Valbuena of the Houston Astros and Yunel Escobar of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
Escobar holds a modest $7 million team option for the 2017 season, so he will likely stay put with the Angels for at least another year. A further option that clubs won’t have the opportunity to sign is Miami Marlins infielder Martin Prado, who agreed to a three-year extension worth $40 million on Tuesday.
Prado, who will turn 33 years old in October, owns a solid .304/.359/.413 batting line in 647 plate appearances this season (108 wRC+). That slash line is right on par with his career totals of .293/.342/.423 (108 wRC+) in 5,231 trips to the plate.
Since being acquired by the Marlins in a trade with the New York Yankees during the 2014 offseason, Prado has accumulated 6.7 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. He rates favorably with his glove as well.
Using the defensive WAR statistic, Prado has racked up nearly two wins in 278 games with the team. Take into consideration the leadership that he provides his teammates along with his all-around game on both sides of the ball, and Prado’s new deal appears to be a good agreement for both sides.
What does this mean for Turner? Other than the fact that he’s about to sign a lucrative, long-term deal, he might be the Dodgers’ most important player to retain this offseason.
Since signing with Los Angeles as a non-roster invitee prior to the 2014 season, Turner has evolved into a superstar. In 1,368 plate appearances (382 games), he has hit .296/.364/.493 with 80 doubles, 50 home runs and 192 runs batted in — good for a 137 wRC+.
In addition to his elite offensive production, Turner has developed into one of the better defensive third basemen in the Majors. Using FanGraphs’ defensive rating system, he ranks first among qualified players at 15.1 — ahead of the likes of Colorado’s Nolan Arenado, Texas’ Adrian Beltre and Baltimore’s Manny Machado.
Going by UZR/150, Turner also checks in at first with a rating of 17.0. While he hasn’t been credited with any Gold Glove Awards to this point, Turner at the very least deserves to be in the conversation.
With the combination of offense and defense, he has been worth 13.1 wins during his tenure with the Dodgers, and that number will undoubtedly increase before the end of the regular season. What’s more, Turner is viewed as a leader in the clubhouse.
A.J. Ellis went so far as to refer to his former teammate as the ‘heart and soul’ of the Dodgers. The one downside of re-signing Turner to a large contract is that he’ll be turning 32 in November.
He may seek a minimum of four years for his next deal, and it remains to be seen if the Dodgers’ brass will be comfortable with that commitment to a player on the wrong side of 30.
Just last offseason, the front office, headlined by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi, refused to give Zack Greinke the sixth year he was seeking, which led him to ultimately bolting for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
But given the lack of appealing options in free agency, the front office may have to make an exception this time around. If Turner signs elsewhere, the Dodgers will be left with a gaping hole that’s going to be very difficult to fill.
Their internal replacements potentially include the likes of Kiké Hernandez, Howie Kendrick and Rob Segedin. If either one is tasked with becoming the new starting third baseman, it would consequently hinder the organization’s depth as a result.
Other options include trading for Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria, though that would require giving up top prospects for a player who’s still producing at a high level (and who’s only a year younger than Turner).
No matter what direction the Dodgers decide to go in, third base will be an important area to address this offseason.
