As if the 2018 season couldn’t have gotten any worse, the Los Angeles Dodgers lost arguably their most valuable player for the season this week when news broke that Corey Seager needed Tommy John surgery.
While off to a brutally slow start to the season (.257/.339/.366 with just seven extra-base hits), Seager has led the Dodgers in WAR in both of the last two seasons — and has the fifth-highest mark in all of baseball since coming into the league.
So the question of the moment becomes: what do the Dodgers do now?
To answer this, we’ll look at three potential places they could turn to: the current roster, the Minor Leagues and (the most exciting of the three) trade targets around the league.
Current Roster
For the time being, the Dodgers are looking at reinforcements on the current roster, and the first two names that come to mind are Kiké Hernandez and Chris Taylor.
Hernandez has been strong all over the field thus far, but Taylor is being given the first opportunity to stick at his natural position. That’s despite the fact he’s seen less than 100 Major League innings at short since joining the team.
During his time with Seattle, Taylor had 65 career starts at shortstop (and another 200 at the Triple-A level).
Offensively, Hernandez has the potential to be a real asset. But in looking at how the Dodgers have been built, you can bet that defense will be the first thing taken into account.
Regardless of which of these players sees the most time at shortstop (and it might turn into a platoon), the immediate beneficiary of all this is rookie Alex Verdugo, who seems likely to see regular playing time in what was a crowded outfield just a couple of days ago.
Minor Leagues
If the Dodgers like having Taylor in center and Hernandez as a platoon guy in the outfield, is there someone in the Minors that could get called up to fill-in?
The first name you’ll here is Breyvic Valera, who was recalled when Seager was placed on the disabled list. Valera was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals just a few weeks ago, and the 26-year-old has what the front office loves: versatility.
Like Hernandez, he’s comfortable all over the infield and outfield, however Valera has just 15 career Major League at-bats and doesn’t appear to be a great answer for a team hoping to contend for a World Series.
While he does boast great on-base percentage numbers over the past three seasons at Triple-A (with more walks than strikeouts), Valera’s limited experience at shortstop — just 36.1 innings in Triple-A — makes him a serious dark horse.
Aside from Valera, there’s nobody that appears ready to contribute at the big league level immediately. Gavin Lux, the Dodgers’ 2016 first-round pick, is the top-rated prospect the organization have who can play short — but he’s currently playing at High-A Rancho Cucamonga.
Outside the Organization
Now comes the fun part: who might be available via trade to step in and make a difference?
The first name you’ll hear is Manny Machado, but that comes with a number of caveats. To be honest, I’m not worried about the fact that he’s on a one-year contract (Seager should be ready for 2019, so the Dodgers don’t need a long-term answer at short) — I’m more worried about his salary.
As many fans noticed, the Dodgers did everything possible to get below the luxury tax threshold in order to reset their penalty. And the truth is, they didn’t do it by much.
Machado is making $16 million this season — so even at a pro-rated amount, it’s a significant enough figure to mess up the luxury tax. Of course, the Dodgers could try to package extra prospects in hopes that Baltimore would take someone like Matt Kemp back, or that they’d pay a majority of Machado’s remaining salary, but this isn’t the perfect fit.
That said, on paper Machado does make the most sense given the short-term nature of his deal and the elite level at which he plays. It would allow the Dodgers to continue dreaming about a trip back to the World Series.
Two other semi-interesting names to consider on the trade market would be Freddy Galvis of the San Diego Padres and Detroit’s Jose Iglesias. Both are set to be free agents next season, both play for teams not expected to contend this year, and< both are above-average defensively. Galvis, obviously, comes with the complication of playing within the division. But given that the Padres aren't expected to compete with the Dodgers this season, I can't see that being too big of a road block. One thing to note about both players is that neither provides much in the way of offense, which is why I'd imagine they are unlikely to make a ton of sense for the Dodgers. Given the presence of Taylor and Hernandez (as well as Valera), and the glut of outfield replacements should either of them move, I'm not sure either Galvis or Iglesias move the needle enough to pursue a trade. Analysis
So what’s the conclusion here? While my immediate reaction to Machado’s name surfacing in trade rumors was a general eye-roll (as in, ‘this can’t be real’), the more I think about it, the more it makes sense.
The Dodgers front office has gotten creative financially in the past, and I refuse to believe they’d let this season spiral out of control just to stay under the luxury tax. So will Machado be a Dodger? I still find it unlikely, but it’s not as crazy as it sounds.
More than likely I believe the Dodgers eventually turn to Hernandez while letting Verdugo get every-day reps in the outfield. That allows Taylor to remain in center field (a position the Dodgers don’t have a great replacement for) and offers them the least offensive drop off.
The silver lining in all of this is that, in reality, the Dodgers are probably better positioned to handle a loss like this than any other club. They boast positional flexibility and a 40-man roster that runs deep with above-average Major League talent.
The Dodgers can rest assured in knowing Seager’s injury isn’t a death sentence for them. Although it does close the margin for error.
