With one of the deepest rosters in all of baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers cruised to a franchise-best 106 wins and seventh consecutive National League West title last season.
The club ultimately suffered its earliest postseason exit in four years to the eventual World Series champion Washington Nationals, paving the way for what has been an active offseason.
Though it took some time to come together, the Dodgers’ blockbuster trade for Mookie Betts and David Price became official on Monday. L.A. also netted flamethrower Brusdal Graterol in a separate deal with the Minnesota Twins that saw Kenta Maeda head the other way.
Among other additions for the Dodgers this winter include a trio of pitchers in Blake Treinen, Jimmy Nelson and Alex Wood. Notable subtractions from last year’s roster are Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill and David Freese.
Even with all of the turnover this offseason, Baseball Prospectus’ annual PECOTA projections peg the Dodgers to post the best record in MLB this season en route to an eighth straight NL West title.
| Year | PECOTA | Actual W-L |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 93-69 | 92-70 |
| 2014 | 98-64 | 94-68 |
| 2015 | 97-65 | 92-70 |
| 2016 | 94-68 | 91-71 |
| 2017 | 97-65 | 104-58 |
| 2018 | 99-63 | 92-71 |
| 2019 | 95-67 | 106-56 |
| 2020 | 38-22 | 43-17 |
| 2021 | 103-59 | 106-56 |
| 2022 | 98-64 | 111-51 |
| 2023 | 97-65 | 100-62 |
| 2024 | 101-61 | 98-64 |
| 2025 | 104-58 | TBD |
The model tabs the Dodgers and a handful of other teams to play in 163 games this year. As Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus explained, that result is based on 1,000 simulations.
With a 102.5 win total for the Dodgers, no other team is expected to reach the 90-win threshold. The New York Mets are pegged to win 88 games, with the Nationals (87), Cincinnati Reds (86) and Chicago Cubs (85) rounding out the rest of the projected NL playoff teams.
For a second consecutive year, the NL West is slated to be a heap of mediocrity. The San Diego Padres (79-83), Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83), Colorado Rockies (77-85) and San Francisco Giants (68-94) are all predicted to fall short of postseason contention.
After finishing with the second-worst record in all of baseball last season, PECOTA believes the Baltimore Orioles will return to the league’s cellar with a lowly 63-99 record. That mark is five games worse than the Giants, who are projected to claim the NL’s worst record in 2020.
PECOTA additionally views the NL Central as the closest race in the league. The Reds, expected to win the division, are only seven games separated from the fourth-place Milwaukee Brewers.
There is more parity in the American League, with the New York Yankees pegged to win 99 games. Last year’s pennant-winning Houston Astros only one game behind, while the Minnesota Twins (93-69) are tabbed to win the AL Central.
The Dodgers have now been projected by PECOTA to win more than 90 games in eighth consecutive seasons. Last year, the club exceeded their 95-win total by 11.
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