At first, it was Clayton Kershaw’s award to lose. And then he got hurt.
And so it became Max Scherzer’s award to lose. And then he got hurt.
So… What now? Well, take your pick:
Pitcher A: 17-6 (30 starts), 2.87 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 208 Ks, 5.5 WAR
Pitcher B: 15-6 (29), 2.59 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, 253 Ks, 5.6 WAR
Pitcher C: 14-4 (26), 2.60 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 190 Ks, 5.0 WAR
Pitcher D: 17-4 (25), 2.26 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 0.93 WHIP, 194 Ks, 4.5 WAR
Which pitcher are you selecting?
Pitcher A is second in the National League in WAR and is tied for the lead in wins. Pitcher B has the most strikeouts and lowest WHIP. Pitcher C has the lowest FIP, while Pitcher D is tied for the most wins, has the lowest ERA and is nearly tied for the best WHIP (but has the worst FIP and WAR).
Pitcher A is Zack Greinke, Pitcher B is Max Scherzer, Pitcher C is Stephen Strasburg and Pitcher D is Clayton Kershaw. What a year to be voting for the NL Cy Young Award.
The irony this season for Kershaw, of course, is rich. Here he is tied for the league lead in wins — a category that cost him the 2012 Cy Young when RA Dickey went 20-6 and was given the award ahead of the 14-9 Kershaw despite having worse numbers basically everywhere else.
Kershaw is set to lead the NL in ERA for the fifth time in seven years, and is sure to finish in the top five in voting for a seventh consecutive year.
The question honestly comes down to whether voters have officially abandoned traditional statistics.
It’s difficlut to imagine any pitcher in baseball history losing the Cy Young despite leading the league in the two most famous categories — wins and ERA, which Kershaw does. And yet, for the first time in a while, it’s the Sabermetrics that do Kershaw in.
While his ERA is the best by a wide margin, Kershaw’s FIP is third-best among these four candidates. Likewise, because of the missed starts, he ranks fourth in the group in terms of WAR.
With two presumed starts remaining, it will be fascinating to see what happens. Can Kershaw bring his ERA back down below 2.10? Can he get to 19 wins? Can he re-take the WHIP lead?
With the divisional race all but wrapped up, and home-field advantage and playoff auditions left to keep us entertained (or depressed), it appears as if we’ve got one more thing to keep an eye on.
