The Los Angeles Dodgers clinched their fourth straight National League West division title on Sunday, locking in a matchup with the National League East champion Washington Nationals in the 2016 NL Division Series.
While the start date of the NLDS is known — Friday, Oct. 7 — who will have home-field advantage has yet to be determined. Los Angeles enters play Tuesday night with a 90-66 record and 1.5 games back of the Nationals.
The Dodgers have three-game road series against the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants remaining on their schedule.
Meanwhile, the Nationals are in the midst of a four-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks and will next host the Miami Marlins.
Washington’s slim lead over the Dodgers may be in further danger considering the slew of injuries of they’re dealing with. With that in mind, the DodgerBlue.com staff debated whether the Dodgers will overtake the Nationals for home-field advantage, and the value of having that in the NLDS.
Daniel Starkand (@DStarkand):
The National are figuratively and literally limping into the postseason, as not only have they lost six of their last nine games, but they recently have been bit by the injury bug.
I think the ball is in Dodgers manager Dave Roberts’ court if they want home-field advantage for the NLDS. Los Angeles owns the tiebreaker, so if Roberts wants to continue to play his everyday players then I think they have a good chance of finishing ahead of the Nationals.
While it is a risk as someone could possibly get hurt in the last six games, I think the Dodgers should go for it as having home-field will be a big advantage in the event the series goes to a Game 5. The Dodgers are 53-28 at home this season, compared to just 37-38 on the road.
Matt Borelli (@MattDodgerBlue):
I believe the Dodgers will in fact catch the Nationals for home-field advantage. Los Angeles has a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way, playing three in San Diego and ending the season with Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill making starts in the final series against San Francisco.
While the Nationals appear to have an easy schedule as well (three against the Diamondbacks and Marlins), they are really struggling with injuries at the moment.
In addition to Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper not at full health, catcher Wilson Ramos suffered a season-ending injury Monday night.
Even if Washington maintains home-field advantage, I don’t think it’s as important as it might’ve been a month ago, given the Nationals’ abundance of injuries and the star power at the top of the Dodgers’ rotation.
No matter what ballpark Kershaw and Hill start at, the Dodgers have a strong chance of winning that game.
Jared Massey (@JarredJMassey):
With six games remaining, it appears unlikely that the Dodgers will surpass the Nationals as the No. 2 seed in the NL. The Nationals won’t face Zack Greinke, who missed his last start with a shoulder injury and is likely done for the year, though Washington did lose the opener on Monday night.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers play the Padres, who they’ve dominated recently, having won five of their last six matchups. This weekend will likely determine home-field advantage in the NLDS.
The Nationals host the Marlins, who’ve played them tough, but are not in playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Dodgers fly to San Francisco where the Giants will be playing for a Wild Card spot.
If the Dodgers go into the weekend up one game, I think they have a shot to finish ahead in the standings. However, the schedule simply isn’t on their side.
Los Angeles will have to control their own destiny heading into the postseason, and nothing would be sweeter than sealing home-field advantage in the NLDS while eliminating the Giants from postseason play.
But, when it comes to the NLDS, I’m not sure the Dodgers really need home-field advantage. Yes, they’ve struggled on the road this year, but most of the time they didn’t have their two best starters pitching those games.
While Max Scherzer has been very good this season, Strasburg may not pitch again. Harper recently injured his thumb and Ramos suffered a torn ACL.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are generally healthy, save the club erring on the side of caution and skipping Rich Hill’s most recent start. Health is key.
If Kershaw and Hill are ready to go and the lineup isn’t missing any major cogs, the Dodgers look like they can take on anybody. The Nationals have a strong team, but if they’re missing one of their best pitchers and two of their best hitters are hurt, I like the Dodgers’ chances of advancing to the NLCS, regardless of where the games are played.
Eric Avakian (@AvakEric):
Yes, I think the Dodgers will surpass the Nationals for home-field advantage. Even if the two clubs finished tied in the standings, Los Angeles gets the nod given they won five of six head-to-head meetings.
However, I don’t believe home-field advantage is a necessity. Playing against a banged up Nationals lineup, which just lost Ramos, could turn into a field day for Kershaw and Hill.
Kershaw’s lone start against the Nationals this season resulted in one run allowed over seven innings, while racking up eight strikeouts. With Kershaw returning to form of late and Hill dealing, the Dodgers are capable of taking the first two games at Nationals Park.
With two potential victories in the book, Kenta Maeda would be set up for his playoff debut in a comfortable setting at Dodger Stadium.
Jeff Spiegel (@JeffSpiegel):
My gut is that the Dodgers do catch the Nationals for home-field advantage. I think the Dodgers are actually in peak form right now — as healthy in the rotation as ever, and riding the high of a divisional title.
Both teams have comparable schedules, facing an uncompetitive team, followed by three against a team still (technically, in the Marlins’ case) in the hunt for the Wild Card. The reason I think the Dodgers can overtake the Nationals is because they are a team to which home field does really matter.
Aside from the Cubs, the Dodgers have the best home record in all of baseball (tied with the Cleveland Indians) at 53-28. On the road, the Dodgers have the 14th-best winning percentage in baseball, currently sitting one game under .500.
With Kershaw and Hill presumably slated to pitch Games 1 and 2, the Dodgers will be a tough beat no matter where they play. But if Los Angeles can get both of them to pitch at home, it’d be a big coup.
