Ceilings and Floors
In a somewhat unpredictable move, the Dodgers traded the certainty of Jose Peraza for the uncertainty of Frankie Montas.
While Peraza is something of a known quantity, Montas offers plenty of variation in his future outcomes.
Peraza should be a Major Leaguer due to his defensive versatility alone. He’s capable of playing all three up-the-middle positions (excluding catcher, of course) and doing so fairly well (though he’s not great at short).
While that gets him on the 25-man roster, Peraza will need to be a 60 or better hitter to get into the lineup, meaning he needs to hit for a high average in order to produce at the plate, since he doesn’t walk much.
He has just a five percent walk rate and .085 ISO over his career in the Minors. Montas will be a Major League as well, with a dominant heater and slider.
However, the role remains up in the air. He’s started 80 of his 92 career Minor League games, with all of his Minor League appearances coming as part of a rotation since 2014.
Montas’ strikeout rate over that time has been solid, but not what you’d expect from someone who throws as hard as he does. Remarkably, over his last 208 innings between the Minors and Majors, he’s surrendered just seven home runs.
His walk rate could improve, though at less than four per nine innings; meaning it’s not a liability. In essence, the Dodgers traded someone who could be a second-division starter but is more likely a utility man for a someone who could be a No. 3 starter, but is more likely a setup man.
Both are still young enough to improve and both have risks attached, but Montas’ is greater. The other pieces stack up well for the Dodgers.
Thompson and Schebler are somewhat similar, with Thompson having more defensive versatility and speed while Schebler has more power and a better present hit tool. Johnson is an actual prospect, while Dixon may never make it out of Double-A.
In terms of one-to-one value, the Dodgers have a definite advantage. Montas-Peraza is a push, Thompson–Schebler is also a push, while Johnson-Dixon leans heavily in Johnson’s favor.
Are More Trades Ahead?
Is that it? Are the Dodgers done? Of course not! The biggest question this trade raises is how long are the new Dodgers going to be part of the organization?
Montas’ pure stuff is something scouts dream on. However, analytics may not be as kind. His high walk rates and less than stellar strikeout rates in the Minors could lead the underwhelming statistical projections, such as the marks ZIPS and Steamer give him.
Thompson and Johnson, too, are upside players with tools. While Thompson is more well-rounded, Johnson has easy 70 speed, which some team would love to see at the top of their order.
Johnson may have a path to the Majors after 2016, but Thompson is not likely to win a starting job with the Dodgers in the near future. Both are expendable.
Certainly, nothing is written in stone. The Dodgers could hold onto all three to give them options for 2016 and beyond. However, if one or all three are used to deal for a No. 2 starter, fans are unlikely to complain.
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