The Major League Baseball wildcard round is behind us, and the final eight teams preparing to play in a more traditional playoff series. Meanwhile, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America votes for league Cy Young and MVP awards are being tabulated behind the scenes, leaving the baseball world to speculate who will win what when the announcements come shortly after the conclusion of the world series.
Currently, oddsmakers and sportsbooks covering American League MVP odds have listed Aaron Judge as the overwhelming favorite at an astronomical -30,000 (no, that is not a typo). Judge is followed by last year’s winner Shohei Ohtani at +3500, with both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Ramirez listed at a comical +50,000.
Unlike the American League MVP Award race, which is between just two players, the National League race is interesting because several players could legitimately win. The shortlist includes Dodgers’ Trea Turner +8500, Mookie Betts +15000 and Freddie Freeman +5000, San Diego Padres’ Manny Machado +7000, St. Louis Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt -6000, and Nolan Arenado +7000, and the New York Mets’ Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso both at +15,000.
Freeman Behind Goldschmidt
It had been a fantastic season for the St. Louis Cardinals. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado had stellar years, and the team finished strong down the stretch. The pair of MVP hopefuls are sharing the roster with legends Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright, all of whom are playing their final season.
Between the two Cardinals, Goldschmidt had the better season, was leading the National League in batting average and RBIs, and was second in homers as late as August 25th. However, Goldschmidt struggled in September, opening the door for others, including Manny Machado and Freddie Freeman, who both played some inspired baseball down the stretch, significantly closing the gap and making a solid argument for themselves. However, Goldschmidt remains the clear favorite.
The Case for Freeman
The Dodgers were the best team in baseball, and Freddie Freeman was their best player. Freeman led the league in hits, doubles, runs, on-base percentage, and times on base, playing half his games in a traditional pitchers’ park. His .325 average was a fraction behind league leader Jeff McNeil’s .326. His team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, won 112 games, making him the best player on one of the best regular season teams in the history of the major leagues. If that’s not an MVP season, it is hard to argue what is.
The Winner
Unfortunately for Freeman, the league MVP Award usually boils down to offense, and Goldschmidt led Freeman in OPS, wRC+, wOBA, and almost every other offensive metric available.
Given that, Goldschmidt and Freeman will likely finish 1-2 in the baseball writers voting, with the results being much closer than we would have thought back in August.
