In December 2014 the Los Angeles Dodgers spent $48 million on a pitcher who had been on three teams in three years, and five teams over the course of his nine-year career. Over that time, Brandon McCarthy had two seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and only two seasons with more than 130 innings pitched.
And, well, since then, the Dodgers seem to have gotten exactly what they signed up for: an injury-prone, back-end starter. That is until you look just a tad beneath the surface.
While his ERA never dazzled, McCarthy was always a favorite of the sabermetric crowd that believed he was simply the product of some unfortunate luck. While his ERA dipped below 4.00 just twice, McCarthy’s FIP had been well under 4.00 in all four seasons prior to his signing with the Dodgers.
In layman’s terms, FIP is the equivalent of a pitcher’s ERA over a given period of time if he experienced league-average results on balls in play.
Aside from McCarthy’s 23 innings of work and 5.87 ERA and 6.22 FIP in 2015, his first year with the Dodgers, the aforementioned trend has continued since last season. Despite posting a disappointing 4.95 ERA last season (inflated by his final outing of six runs allowed without recording an out), McCarthy’s FIP was a more-than-acceptable 3.70.
For some context, players in the same vicinity last season include Carlos Carrasco (3.72), Danny Salazaar (3.74) and Marcus Stroman (3.71).
This isn’t to say McCarthy is as good as those pitchers (at some point it ceases to be just ‘bad luck’), but rather to say he’s probably closer to their level than pitchers with ERAs around 5.00.
Which brings us to this season — McCarthy’s best as a Dodger (it’s a low bar, I know), and the second-best of his career.
As it stands, McCarthy’s 3.27 FIP is the 11th-best in baseball, his 3.38 ERA is 18th-best, and the right-hander is tied for 17th overall with 2.2 WAR (FanGraphs). He’s played a significant role in the Dodgers rotation holding the best ERA in the Majors at 3.17.
While many speculate about the team’s need for another starter, the truth is that McCarthy, albeit with the caveat of ‘when healthy,’ is making a strong case that the Dodgers are fine when he, Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood and Rich Hill are all rolling.
Statistically, McCarthy is far superior to the No. 3 starter of every potential playoff team in the National League aside from perhaps the Washington Nationals who would trot out Gio Gonzalez. That could very well change as the Dodgers are hoping Hill finishes the season as their third starter.
The bottom line is the two bad years in 2015 and 2016 should not tarnish what McCarthy has accomplished this season.
While the internet speculates about the Dodgers needing another starting pitcher, Brandon McCarthy will keep doing his thing — and finally, with a little luck on his side.
