The Los Angeles Dodgers lineup has fallen short of meeting expectations so far this season, ranking closer to the middle of the pack in most offensive categories than at the top.
The lineup is eighth in slugging percentage; ninth in runs scored, wRC+, wOBA and on-base plus slugging; 13th in on-base percentage; 14th in walk rate and 17th in batting average. All of that combined has the Dodgers as the 10th-most valuable offense in baseball.
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While a top-10 offense is nothing to scoff at, it is a group that should easily be in the top three of nearly every category, if not first.
A lot of their offensive issues can be traced back to the bottom of the Dodgers lineup, which has failed to produce much value at all, and they are rarely on base.
That means Shohei Ohtani is up with the bases empty more often than not. He’s had just seven plate appearances and three at-bats with runners in scoring position.
One way to get Ohtani more opportunities to drive in runs would be by moving him down in the order, but that’s not something Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is considering.
“Not really, given that Freddie is back and we’d be back in that same position of having the lefties back-to-back,” Roberts said. “Also, I just feel there’s guys that are going to perform better than they have and Shohei will ultimately get those opportunities.”
Roberts has expressed his belief in Kiké Hernández and Max Muncy to turn around their seasons, and that would go a long way in helping getting players on base for Ohtani and solving some of the issues in the lower part of the lineup.
Andy Pages has been the Dodgers’ best hitter at the bottom of the lineup, which is an incredibly low bar because he’s still been roughly 30% below league average at the plate.
But the bottom of the order will improve with more plate appearances, even if they don’t get great production, all of them have produced in larger samples, and that should happen again.
If that doesn’t, the Dodgers have players in Triple-A who look more than capable of filling some of those spots.
Why Shohei Ohtani makes sense as Dodgers’ leadoff hitter
Although Ohtani is not the prototypical leadoff hitter in the traditional sense, those types of players are long gone. Getting Ohtani more at-bats than anyone else on the team is the optimal way to produce the most runs, given he’s the Dodgers’ best hitter.
For each spot in the lineup a player drops, they lose about 50 plate appearances over a season, which is why teams more often than not put their best hitters in the top two spots of the lineup now.
Some may counter that Ohtani strikes out too much to be a leadoff hitter, but there is no strong correlation between strikeouts and offensive production, which is why teams have become more accepting of strikeouts in recent years with the thought process that an out is an out regardless of how it’s made.
And even with strikeouts mixed in, Ohtani is still getting on base nearly 40% of the time, putting him in the elite territory and higher than most players with lower strikeout rates. Ohtani’s .402 wOBA is also an elite level, meaning he is on base and racking up extra-base hits often, putting himself in scoring position more than most players in baseball.
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