The Los Angeles Dodgers position themselves in an advantages spot entering Sunday, already winning two-of-three over the Atlanta Braves.
In Saturday’s powerhouse victory, the Dodgers captured at least a series win, taking the middle game in 11-2 fashion. Leading the National League West by 4.5 games has been aided by going 8-2 over their last 10.
The Dodgers and the Braves have trended in opposite directions as of late, with offensive numbers on different sides of the spectrum. Since April 26, the Dodgers have received the third-most runs per game (6.38), while the Braves have scratched across the fifth-lowest (3.13).
Fortunately for the Braves, the Dodgers send left-hander James Paxton to the mound in the finale. The veteran left-hander boasts one of the oddest collection of stats and metrics among Major League starters.
On the season, Paxton owns a 3.51 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, with 15 strikeouts in 25.2 innings pitched. The lefty has walked a league-high 22 batters.
However, among starters with at least 20 innings, Paxton has the highest xFIP (6.23) in Major League Baseball. His actual FIP of 5.57 is not far off, ninth-highest in MLB.
The good within the bad is his ability to escape self-induced traffic. Which he’s done at a high clip, leaving on 82.1% of runners who reach base.
For all the underlying data, Paxton has hunkered down when runners are on base. Allowing a .213 batting average against with runners on base, even more importantly, just a .150 average when they’re in scoring position.
Paxton will square off with Braves lefty Max Fried, who struggled early on in 2024, but has settled in as of late.
In his two most recent starts, Fried has tossed 15 scoreless innings, tallying 13 strikeouts with just two walks. His last outing against the Seattle Mariners yielded six no-hit innings, but was taken out because of pitch count.
Over eight career appearances versus the Dodgers, Fried has a 3-2 record with a 2.68 ERA and 56 strikeouts.
Again in the Dodgers lineup is Andy Pages, whose incredible run to start his big league career has earned him every day at-bats. The rookie has batted .338/.357/.600 with four home runs, five doubles, 12 RBI, and 14 runs scored.
His insertion in the batting order has remedied a problem of stability, providing the Dodgers with an outfield running mate alongside Teoscar Hernández.
Dodgers lineup
SS: Mookie Betts
DH: Shohei Ohtani
1B: Freddie Freeman
RF: Teoscar Hernández
3B: Kiké Hernández
CF: Andy Pages
2B: Miguel Rojas
LF: Chris Taylor
C: Austin Barnes
Braves lineup
RF: Ronald Acuña Jr.
2B: Ozzie Albies
3B: Austin Riley
1B: Matt Olson
DH: Marcell Ozuna
SS: Orlando Arcia
CF: Michael Harris II
LF: Adam Duvall
C: Chadwick Tromp
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