2017 PECOTA Projections: Dodgers To Win NL West, Pace Majors With Best Record

The Los Angeles Dodgers re-signed their top free agents this winter, bolstered their lineup by trading for second baseman Logan Forsythe, and now are poised to win a fifth straight National League West title and pace the Majors with a 98-64 record, via the 2017 Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections.

Last February, PECOTA projected the Dodgers would finish with the best record in baseball at 94-68 and win the NL West. Los Angeles did claim an unprecedented fourth straight division title, though were three wins shy of PECOTA’s projections and had the fifth-best record in the Majors.

PECOTA believes Los Angeles will finish 12 games ahead of the San Francisco Giants in the NL West, while the San Diego Padres are projected to go an NL-West and Major-League worse 70-92.

NL teams forecasted to win their respective divisions are the World Series champion Chicago Cubs (90-72) and New York Mets (88-74). The Houston Astros are estimated to pace the American League with a 93-69 record.

PECOTA has the Cleveland Indians once more winning the AL Central with a 92-70 record, and the Boston Red Sox going 90-72 to be crowned AL East champions.

PECOTA projections the NL East to be the tightest race in baseball, with the Mets finishing only one game ahead of the Washington Nationals, who won the division last season.

Los Angeles has now been projected by PECOTA to win more than 90 games in five consecutive seasons. The Dodgers last season became the first team to win the division in four straight years, and while the club has won at least 91 games over the past four seasons, they’ve yet to meet or surpass the annual win total set by the Baseball Prospectus forecast.

Prior to their 2013-16 run, the Dodgers hadn’t won the division more than two years in a row in franchise history, which includes their time in Brooklyn.