Now that the Los Angeles Dodgers have an opponent for the 2017 National League Division Series, it’s time to take a look at what to expect out of the upcoming series. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Dodgers are pretty well matched, both on offense and on the mound.
As expected, the Dodgers had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball this season, placing third overall in Fangraphs WAR. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks didn’t finish far behind, ranking fifth. The Dodgers’ collective 3.38 ERA was second only to Cleveland, and Arizona’s (3.66) was third.
The Diamondbacks’ starters actually posted a slightly higher WAR (18.9 to 16.9) but slightly worse ERA (3.39 to 3.61), though the Dodgers’ had the better FIP. The Dodgers hold the advantage with the third-ranked bullpen in the Majors, while the Diamondbacks were 11th.
So, let’s dig deeper into the pitching staffs.
Once again, it all starts with Clayton Kershaw. While he missed time with a back injury and gave up more home runs than anyone expected, Kershaw still finished ninth in WAR (FanGraphs) and fourth in RA9 WAR.
He claimed another NL ERA title with a 2.31 mark, which was the highest he’s posted since 2012. While Kershaw doesn’t figure to win the Cy Young Award, he should continue his streak of finishing top five in the voting.
The Dodgers ace still has something to prove in October, as his final postseason start in 2016 probably left a bad taste in his mouth.
The next two starters are probably the strongest the Dodgers have fielded in the playoffs in a while. Rich Hill had his ups and downs during the season but finished strong, posting a 3.01 ERA in the second half and a 1.86 mark in September.
His 135.2 innings are the second most he’s pitched in his career and the most he’s pitched since 2007. Hill struggled in the NLDS last year, then pitched six scoreless innings against the Chicago Cubs in his only NL Championship Series start.
And then there’s Yu Darvish, who was acquired for this exact purpose. While he also had bumps in the road, Darvish finished the season with a 3.44 ERA with the Dodgers, striking out 30.2 percent of batters faced.
Darvish has pitched in just two postseason games and struggled, including allowing four home runs in the ALDS last year for the Texas Rangers.
The final starter for the NLDS is expected to be Alex Wood, who was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of the regular season. Unfortunately, his performance, along with his velocity, dipped as the season wore on.
Wood’s first half ERA was 1.67, his second half ERA was 3.89. Wood has never started a playoff game, making four appearances out of the bullpen. His last appearance was Game 4 of the 2016 NLCS, in which he allowed four runs in two innings.
On the other side, the Diamondbacks could be without two of their top starters for the first game or two of the series. Zack Greinke, who was excellent during the regular season, allowed four runs in 3.1 innings in the Wild Card Game.
Then, in a surprise move, manager Torey Lovullo brought in presumed NLDS Game 1 starter Robbie Ray to pitch 2.1 innings. Now who’s going to pitch Game 1?
It could be Zack Godley, who ranked second on the Diamondbacks with a 3.5 fWAR. The 27-year-old rebounded from a rough 2016 to become one of the better starters in the NL this season.
Arizona could also go with Patrick Corbin, who posted a 3.0 fWAR, good for 14th in the NL. The 28-year-old southpaw missed the 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and bounced back nicely after a difficult 2016 campaign.
A dark horse option could be Taijuan Walker, whom the Diamondbacks acquired during the offseason from the Seattle Mariners. The youngest member of the rotation, Walker posted a 3.49 ERA in 28 starts and has electric stuff.
None of those three have ever started a postseason game, which could lead Lovullo to go with Corbin, the senior member of the bunch, in Game 1. Corbin has the most regular season experience, the most experience against the Dodgers and is the oldest.
Walker had the most success against the Dodgers this season, while both he and Godley pitched well at Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers still have to worry about Greinke and Ray, who finished third and 12th in the NL in fWAR, respectively. Ray could pitch Game 2 if he feels the workload in the Wild Card Game was simply a substitute for his normal throw day. Though, the safer bet is that he comes back for Game 4. Greinke is in line to pitch Game 3.
As for the bullpens, the Dodgers boast the best reliever in the baseball in Kenley Jansen. He led all relievers with a 3.5 fWAR and was ninth in the NL in WAR despite pitching only 68.1 innings.
Jansen leads all relievers in fWAR since 2011 at 16.5, with Craig Kimbrel second at 12.5. He’s been that good.
The Dodgers have had issues finding a bridge to Jansen over the past few years but may have solved that problem in an unlikely way. The club signed Brandon Morrow to a Minor League contract in January, and he’s emerged as a dependable late-inning option.
Despite struggling during Spring Training and with Triple-A Oklahoma City, the hard-throwing righty turned the corner after joining the Dodgers in late May. Morrow posted a 1.5 fWAR during his time with the club.
While Luis Avilan would have been an asset if not for shoulder inflammation, the Dodgers aren’t short on southpaws. Trade acquisitions Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani have pitched well with the team.
Neither Pedro Baez nor Josh Fields pitched as well as their ERAs would indicate, but both could see time in the sixth or seventh inning if they make the roster. Long relief options include Ross Stripling, Brock Stewart and Kenta Maeda.
For Arizona, they also have a strong back of the bullpen. Closer Fernando Rodney and setup man Archie Bradley both posted fWARs of over 1.0.
Lefties Andrew Chafin and TJ McFarland have both pitched well, with Jorge De La Rosa lurking as a long relief option. The Diamondbacks will miss hard-throwing Randall Delgado, though rookie Jimmie Sherfy has pitched well in his brief time in the Majors.
So, which pitching staff has the edge?
You could say the rotations would be a push if each team’s best pitchers were matching up. But, with Kershaw and Hill likely going against Arizona’s Nos. 3 and 4 starters, along with a superior bullpen, the Dodgers appear to be the superior bunch.
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