Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings are upon us. While some fans have grown anxious at the Los Angeles Dodgers’ lack of moves, this annual gathering is generally the starting point for Hot Stove season.
Whether it’s free-agent signings or trades, the transaction wire is about to pick up steam. Let’s examine what the Dodgers are looking to accomplish this week in Nashville, Tenn.
Starting Pitching
When the Arizona Diamondbacks swooped in and struck an agreement Zack Greinke, Dodgers fans were rightfully shocked.
The front office, however, was not. Retaining the righty was a priority, but paying Greinke over $200 million to pitch into his mid-to-late 30s doesn’t fit the front office’s M.O. of getting younger.
David Price had already gone to the Boston Red Sox and Jordan Zimmermann to Detroit, so the options for top-of-the-line pitching had dwindled quickly.
So, who’s left?
Johnny Cueto becomes the biggest name still available on the pitching market. His final appearance of 2015 wasn’t bad — a complete-game victory in the World Series.
However, Cueto’s season was volatile, with his performance after arriving in Kansas City being shakier than his delivery. Plus, he’s already turned down a six year, $120 million offer from Arizona and had an MRI on his elbow earlier this year.
On the other hand, who else is there? Options such as Yovani Gallardo, Hisashi Iwakuma and Ian Kennedy are no better than No. 3 starters and each received a qualifying offer.
The Dodgers reportedly reached an agreement with Iwakuma. Scott Kazmir may be the best free-agent option, but do the Dodgers need another lefty in the middle of their rotation?
This is where trades come in. The front office hasn’t been afraid to deal over the past year and the best value may be found in working with other clubs.
Plus, the names being floated around as available targets are far more attractive than what’s left of the free-agent market.
It’s believed the Cleveland Indians are looking to unload one of their pitchers for outfield help. The Dodgers just so happen to have a glut of outfielders, a couple of whom are young and talented.
Corey Kluber hasn’t been mentioned as a potential trade candidate, but the 2014 American League Cy Young winner had a strong follow-up performance in 2015 and is signed to a team-friendly contract (under control through 2021 for $63 million).
Carlos Carrasco has established himself as another top-shelf target, being a year younger than Kluber with very similar numbers over the past two seasons and an even better contract (under control through 2020 for $37.5 million).
Then you have the young guns, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer, who will be 26 and 25 on Opening Day in 2016, respectively.
Another name that’s been floating around for what seems like months is Shelby Miller. The Dodgers have been in contact with the Braves and Atlanta reportedly asked for Joc Pederson in return, which the Dodgers declined.
Los Angeles seems more likely to part with Yasiel Puig. One more name that’s been speculated as being available is Oakland Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray.
The A’s ace pitched a complete-game shutout against the Dodgers last July, on his way to a breakout season. The 26 year old is under contract for the next four seasons.
In the end, passing on signing Greinke and Price make sense, as committing boatloads of money to pitchers who are headed for decline doesn’t generally yield the best results.
However, Greinke does need to be replaced and the best place to look right now is the trade market.
CONTINUE READING: What To Expect From The Dodgers — Relievers
Relief Pitching
Pass.
Ok, let’s elaborate. Darren O’Day, the prize of this year’s free agent reliever market, is rumored to have a deal in place for four years at about $8 million a year. He’s 33.
Ryan Madson, who didn’t pitch in 2012 or 2014, is going to sign a three-year deal with the A’s. He’s 35.
The money isn’t hugely important, but combined with the years, it creates a situation where a reliever is likely guaranteed a roster spot even if he isn’t effective anymore (read: Brandon League).
The Dodgers wants to get younger, and young, talented relievers generally don’t hit the open market. That opens the door to trades.
The Dodgers acquired Luis Avinal and Chris Hatcher in separate trades last year. Both are relatively young and provided positive value.
If the club really is in search of relief help, a trade is the likeliest way to go. The Indians have some good relievers, such as Cody Allen and Zach McAllister.
Meanwhile Oakland, who rarely shy away from dealing relievers, have some interesting options in Sean Doolittle and Fernando Rodriguez.
The crown jewel of the market is Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman, whose name has come up as a viable trade candidate this offseason. With reports emerging that the Dodgers appear to be favorite, what would a package look like?
Obviously, Corey Seager and Julio Urias should be off the table. Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig will be desired, but they should only be considered in deals for starting pitchers.
The odd man out may be Jose De Leon, the club’s No. 3 prospect. That seems like a lot to give up for Chapman, who’s eligible for free agency after the 2016 season. Grant Holmes, who has a similar profile to De Leon, could draw interest but he’s further away from the Majors.
Alex Wood’s name could come up as well, as he’s a young, cost-controlled arm. Jose Peraza may be the heir apparent to Brandon Phillips. Austin Barnes could provide another option behind the plate for the Reds.
With both Chapman and Kenley Jansen eligible to become free agents one year from now, it wouldn’t make much sense to keep one over the other.
There’s always the possibility that one is moved in another deal, but retaining both would give the Dodgers the most dominant bullpen duo in the game.
Of course, Los Angeles could rely more heavily on their own young bullpen arms, such as Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia and Adam Liberatore. However, if they feel the need to acquire the ever-popular “proven veteran,” a trade seems more likely than a signing.
CONTINUE READING: What To Expect From The Dodgers — Outfield And More
Outfield
Before you say, “Don’t the Dodgers have too many outfielders already?” let’s take a look at who’s available.
Jason Heyward is unique in the sense that he’s even a free agent at all. He broke into the majors in 2010 at age 20 and is now 26.
He’s also one of the most well-rounded outfielders in the game. While he doesn’t produce the power you’d expect out of a 6’5 245-pound behemoth, he makes plenty of contact and gets on base at a good clip.
Plus, he’s one of the best defensive players in baseball. A scenario in which the Dodgers deal an outfielder (Puig) for pitching and sign Heyward makes a lot of sense.
Then you have the big sticks — Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton. While neither qualify as contact hitters, each presents solid value because of their power.
Upton actually makes less contact and has a higher rate of swinging strikes, but he can also draw a walk here and there, which leads to significantly higher on base percentages than his Cuban counterpart.
Both played surprisingly good defense last year, with Cespedes getting the nod due to his superior arm. Upton is two years younger.
Neither seems like a real option though, and if the Dodgers don’t spend big on Heyward, it seems unlikely they’d pay big money to players with offensive profile Cespedes and Upton have.
As for the trade market, there aren’t many big names that are being rumbled about. Unless of course you include the Boston Red Sox reportedly being open to moving to moving left fielder Hanley Ramirez.
Second Base
As I expected, the Dodgers reportedly agreed to re-sign Chase Utley.
While they’ve been linked to Ben Zobrist, the contract demands for the 34 year old infielder likely exceed what the Dodgers would be willing to commit in terms of salary and, more importantly, years.
And while Howie Kendrick was a solid contributor for the Dodgers last season, the team likely believes Utley could put up similar production at a fraction of the cost. Plus, Kendrick signing elsewhere nets the Dodgers another draft pick.
What To Expect
We’re just now entering the second week of December, so for those of you who are wondering why the Dodgers are taking so long to make a move, hang in there. The front office is about to get busy.
The club’s first priority has to be replacing Greinke. Trading for a younger player who’s under control for several years makes far more sense than taking the contract they offered to Greinke, or scratching out his name and replacing it with Cueto’s.
The focus should be on starters like Carlos Carrasco and Shelby Miller. If a trade for a starting pitcher is made, you can assume it’ll mark the end of Puig’s time with the Dodgers, which leaves a hole in right field.
Filling it with Heyward makes plenty of sense, even if he won’t maintain his defensive value over a six- or seven-year deal.
Don’t expect the club to hand out a three-year deal to a reliever in his 30s. Instead, keep an eye on who’s involved in those starter trade talks. Adding a B-level prospect and getting a good, young reliever is preferable to rolling the dice on a free agent.
What do you think the Dodgers should do at the Winter Meetings? Let us know in the comment section below or reply to Jared on Twitter @JaredJMassey. You can listen to Jared on the weekly Dugout Blues Podcast.