Now that the calendar has turned to 2017, more roster moves are sure to be around the corner, and the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen should be among the most impacted. As mentioned in analysis of the bullpen prior to the 2016 season, it’s interesting to note how far this group has come.
In 2014 and 2015, the Dodgers boasted one of the worst bullpens in the league by traditional metrics. In 2014, they had just the 22nd-best ERA in the league (3.80), only to see that number increase in 2015 to 3.91.
Beneath the surface, however, there was hope. In 2015, Dodgers relievers combined to post the fifth-best FIP and eighth-best WAR — leading many to believe that last season would be the year that the unit became one of baseball’s best.
Mission accomplished.
Last season, the Dodgers posted the bullpen ERA (3.35) in baseball, fourth-best FIP (3.55), the most strikeouts (633) and second-best WAR (6.5). All this despite pitching the most innings (590.2) of any bullpen and using 23 different relievers.
Despite all the positivity, however, 2017 remains a mystery. As it stands, the Dodgers return just two of their five most-used relievers from last season in Pedro Baez and Kenley Jansen. Meaning, the bullpen essentially has more questions than answers.
As it stands, the Dodgers have at least nine relievers on the 40-man roster with a reasonable chance of making the Opening Day roster. This, however, doesn’t include possible long-relief options such as Ross Stripling or Alex Wood. Nor does it include any potential signings or trades.
Of the nine, we’ll break them into two groups: those who are guarantees to be with the Dodgers come Opening Day of the 2017 season, and those who currently face real competition.
Guarantees: Pedro Baez, Grant Dayton, Kenley Jansen
The biggest news, of course, was the re-signing of Kenley Jansen to anchor the bullpen — a move made even more mandatory after his performance in the postseason. But beyond Jansen, what exactly do the Dodgers offer?
Baez and Dayton are good bets to be here based on last season’s performance and the trust exhibited in the postseason. Baez was second on the team in innings (74) and appearances (73), while posting a solid 3.04 ERA.
Dayton, on the other hand, was a late addition to the active roster, making just 25 appearances (26.1 innings), while posting a 2.05 ERA with 39 strikeouts.
CONTINUE READING: Chris Hatcher, Adam Liberatore And Other Relievers Battling To Make Roster
On the fence: Luis Avilan, Josh Fields, Chris Hatcher, Adam Liberatore, Vidal Nuno, Josh Ravin
Hey, I never said it was pretty.
In this group it’s worth noting that both Avilan and Hatcher are out of options. So it’s either be traded, included on the Opening Day roster, or the waiver wire for them. Does that give either a better chance of sticking with the Dodgers? Tough to say.
Avilan appears to be a good bet to be featured this season, based on his inclusion on the postseason roster in the National League Division Series, and the need for a second left-hander in J.P. Howell’s absence.
Last season, Avilan appeared in 27 games for the Dodgers and posted a 3.20 ERA all the while bouncing back and forth between Los Angeles and Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Hatcher, on the other hand, is one of the most polarizing names on this list. Despite holding the potential for greatness, Hatcher’s performance has just never added up. Last season, he began the year as the set-up man before posting a 5.53 ERA in 37 games.
Ultimately, Hatcher’s season was cut short by a strained oblique that sidelined him from July on. The 32-year-old and the Dodgers avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.25 million.
Aside from Avilan, Fields might be the most likely to make the team out of camp thanks to his strong showing after coming over in a trade from the Astros. In 22 regular-season appearances, Fields posted a 2.79 ERA.
As a result, Fields was included on the NLDS and NL Championship Series rosters. He made four postseason appearances, had four strikeouts and allowed just one hit in 2.1 scoreless innings.
Liberatore is the Dodgers’ third-leading appearance man who remains on the roster from last season. In 58 games, he posted a 3.38 ERA and struck out 47 batters in 42.2 innings. What doesn’t show up in those numbers, however, was how much Liberatore slumped in the second half of the season.
In the first half of the year, he posted a 0.61 ERA in 29.1 innings. Included in that was a franchise record 28 consecutive scoreless appearances. Liberatore was unaware of the historic stretch, and only became aware when Dodgers manager Dave Roberts congratulated him.
The second half was a much different story, however, as Liberatore’s ERA ballooned to 9.45 in just 13.1 innings.
Also presenting a challenge for Liberatore moving forward is the presence of two other left-handers in Avilan and Dayton. That said, Dayton’s splits against righties and lefties are nearly identical, while Avilan actually performed better last season against righties than he did lefties.
That brings us to the final two names on the list: Nuno and Ravin. The former is a newcomer to the organization, arriving from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Carlos Ruiz.
Last season, Nuno appeared in 55 games and yielded a 3.53 ERA. What to project for Nuno is somewhat of a difficult task. He’s a back-of-the-bullpen type of reliever that can give you a start if you needed it. Where that fits into this group isn’t clear. Then again, he is yet another lefty.
After returning from a PED suspension, Ravin made 10 appearances and allowed just one earned run while striking out 13 batters. In all likelihood, if not for his prohibition from being included on the postseason roster, Ravin would have been a contributor in the playoffs.
Looking at the collection of relief pitchers, what rises to the forefront is how well they performed last season. Of the six included in the second group, five posted an ERA under 3.55, and the sixth (Hatcher) was so well-liked last year, he was the set-up man on Opening Day.
This isn’t to say the Dodgers still don’t need some help here, but it should indicate the bullpen is probably better off than many believe.
Last season, the Dodgers opened the year with seven relievers and five starting pitchers. Without attempting to guess what the team will do with the glut of starters on the 40-man roster, a seven-man bullpen may again be in order.
With that, and assuming one right-hander is signed or acquired via trade, Hatcher, Liberatore and Nuno will find themselves on the outside looking in. Liberatore and Nuno in the Minors, and Hatcher either joining them — if he clears waivers and accepts an assignment to — or in another organization completely.
Moral of the story? The Dodgers bullpen is probably better than you think. Yet again.