After analyzing the Los Angeles Dodgers’ roster from top to bottom, it’s time to shift the attention to predicting their 25-man roster for the 2017 regular season. If you’ve read along in the ‘State of the Dodgers’ series thus far, you know the one word that comes up over and over again in regards to the roster is depth.
On a 40-man roster, depth is critical. But when you take a look at the 25-man roster, depth makes life a little more difficult. In taking a deep dive into the roster, it’s clear that while the Dodgers have some players that are shoe-ins for the 25-man roster, others who fall in the 15-25 range of the roster don’t have a whole lot that separates them from those who will find themselves in the Minors to begin the season.
So here’s how we’ll do this. We’ll start with the obvious selections and move down the list.
Sure-fire 25-man roster players (alphabetical order): Pedro Baez, Austin Barnes, Grant Dayton, Logan Forsythe, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen, Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Justin Turner
So there you have it – just over half (13) of the 25-man roster is already complete and we didn’t even have to break a sweat. The group includes some surprises — such as Baez and Dayton — while it’s also noteworthy who isn’t on the list, but we’ll get there.
Baez and Dayton make the roster for different reasons. Baez, because he’s clearly a reliever the Dodgers like (125 appearances over the past two seasons), while Dayton is currently projected to be one of the five best relievers in the National League this season.
My gut? Both are safe bets.
“If I had to guess, I’d say ‘yes’ selections”: Mystery reliever, Andre Ethier, Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke, Alex Wood
This brings our total up to 20, and while I’m not 100 percent confident in this batch, there’s still a strong feeling with most names here. Obviously, Ethier and Puig not making the roster would require them being cut or traded.
Puig technically can be optioned to the Minors, but it’s difficult to envision the Dodgers making such a decision prior to Opening Day. At this point, they appear to be really safe bets to be included on the roster.
Joining Ethier and Puig in the outfield are Toles and Van Slyke. While both have the ability to be sent down, each provides enough value to justify keeping them around. Van Slyke might be the best option as far as a platoon option who can hit lefties.
Not to mention he’d provide some relief at first base for Gonzalez. Toles, on the other hand, was simply too good last year not to assume he’ll be a major contributor this season.
The most surprising name on the list has to be Taylor, but at the moment, the Dodgers need someone who can play both middle infield spots in a pinch, and Taylor might be the only option who fits the bill.
As far as the pitchers, it’s clear the Dodgers are trying to add one more arm to their bullpen, so that deserves a designated spot. That’s likely to be filled by former San Francisco Giants closer Sergio Romo, but his reported one-year agreement has not yet been finalized.
Wood is someone most projections are bullish on for this season, and he’s been really good when healthy. While the “when healthy” is a caveat for every Dodgers starter from here on out, Wood has been the most consistently effective and so he gets the nod.
CONTINUE READING: Players on the bubble, near-misses, and more
Toss-up Names: Luis Avilan, Josh Fields, Kiké Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Josh Ravin, Hyun-Jin Ryu
If you add everything up to this point you find there are 27 players named. The truth is, it’s difficult to determine what manager Dave Roberts is going to do with his abundance of starting pitchers.
He hinted at potentially sending Kazmir or McCarthy to the bullpen, which could be done if the club in turn drops a traditional reliever or two (such as Avilan, Fields or Ravin). Aside from Wood, none of the starters mentioned here can be optioned. But Wood is arguably as the best of the bunch, so that’s no help.
My guess is the front office watches what happens, plans for someone to get hurt and makes a real run at trading one of these aforementioned pitchers. But for now? Who knows.
Ryu is apparently healthy, and when he has been right, he’s proven to be a great No. 3 starter. As for Kazmir and McCarthy? Good sometimes, bad sometimes and hurt a lot of the time.
This doesn’t even youngsters Julio Urias, Brock Stewart and Ross Stripling, all of whom are likely to begin the season in the Minors. Urias for rest, and Stewart and Stripling as depth.
As far as the bullpen names go, there are a lot of factors in play here. Avilan and Chris Hatcher are the only relievers on the 40-man without Minor-League options remaining.
Avilan’s inclusion on the playoff roster last season shows the kind of confidence the Dodgers have in him. And if not keeping Avilan in the Majors possibly means cutting him, the club has a difficult decision at hand.
As for Ravin and Fields, the team just needs some right-handed arms right now. Ravin was fantastic in his short stint last season after being suspended, and Fields was another option who garnered trust in the playoffs. I think both would be solid options.
The one name on this list that proved most troublesome was Hernandez. His positional versatility is nice, and yet, the last thing the Dodgers need is another outfielder.
Spring Training may very well be critical for the super-utility player. If Hernandez proves he can hit left-handed pitching with consistency, he likely makes the roster. Otherwise, it’s more time spent in the Minors.
My ultimate guess? The two players who miss the cut here are Avilan and Hernandez.
Just missed the cut: Chris Hatcher, Adam Liberatore, Vidal Nuno, Julio Urias, Darrin Ruf, Trayce Thompson
Could any one of them make the Opening Day roster? Sure. But at present time, they’re likely on the outside looking in.
Hatcher’s exclusion likely would mean his departure from the organization, which might be a positive if he is unable to get right this spring. As for Liberatore, he’s yet another lefty in a bullpen full of them, while Nuno (in my opinion) is a step below Ravin and Fields.
Ruf, like Hatcher, is out of options and so things falling the way they’ve been predicted above, would mean he’s possibly looking for a new organization. Ruf’s biggest competition is Van Slyke. If Van Slyke doesn’t make the roster, then Ruf could carve out a spot for himself as a back-up first baseman and pinch-hitter against lefties.
Finally, we come to Thompson. He’s got one more option year, and with the glut of outfielders, my guess is the Dodgers put it to good use. Thompson started great last season but cooled off before an injury ended his year early.
Thompson’s only problem is the talent in front of him. Toles looked better last season, there are outfielders who can play multiple positions, and while in his career Thompson has hit lefties better than righties, it didn’t play out that way last season.
Again, any of the names in this final grouping could make the 25-man roster without much surprise.
So there you have it — the first guess at a 25-man roster has the Dodgers opening the season with 13 pitchers (seven ‘starters’ and six relievers), seven infielders and five outfielders.
Last season, they began the year with 12 pitchers and 13 positional players, but thanks to the flexibility with Barnes, Van Slyke, etc., Los Angeles can get by with less bats while they figure out their pitching.
Previous articles in State of the Dodgers series, which analyzed the 40-man roster, starting rotation, bullpen, infield and outfield, can be read here.