While the Los Angeles Dodgers are in the seventh week of the 2016 season, one method in adding to the organization’s future is near as the Major League Baseball draft, beginning June 9, rapidly approaches.
The Dodgers have their largest bonus pool ever, with three of the first 36 picks, thanks to compensation picks for losing Zack Greinke to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and for failing to sign last year’s No. 35 overall selection, Kyle Funkhouser.
While the process may seem fairly straight forward, I’ve identified three possible approaches the Dodgers may take in adding more talent to an already-rich farm system. But first, let’s look review last year.
2015 Post-mortem
The best way I could describe last year’s draft is that the operation was a success, but the patient died. While the Dodgers succeeded in finding two top talents with their top two picks, one is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and the other is pitching for Louisville.
Walker Buehler and Funkhouser would have been quite a haul, had Buehler remained healthy and Funkhouser signed. Buehler is nearly 11 months removed from his procedure but likely won’t pitch in competitive ball this year. Funkhouser, who returned to Louisville for his senior season, has regressed and is no longer seen as a top pitching prospect.
The club also took a pair of high school hitters early, selecting Mitch Hansen in the second round and Brendon Davis in the fifth. Hansen remains in extended Spring Training, while Davis is batting around .200 with Low-A Great Lakes.
However, these early returns (or lack thereof) should be taken lightly, as Davis won’t turn 19 years old until July, and Hansen certainly shouldn’t be written off at age 20. A pair of early 2015 draftees who have had some success are righty Josh Sborz (Competitive Balance Round B pick) and second baseman Willie Calhoun (fourth round).
Sborz, last year’s closer for Virginia and College World Series hero, has taken to his starting role with aplomb, posting a 3.42 ERA with 44 strikeouts and just 10 walks in his first 50 innings in the California League.
Calhoun, after reaching High-A Rancho Cucamonga last year, opened this season with Double-A Tulsa and has held his own at age 20, being one of the youngest players in the league. And let’s not forget a pair of prep pitchers who will need time to develop.
Imani Abdullah (11th round) recently debuted with the Loons and, outside of a couple mistakes to Chicago Cubs’ prospect Eloy Jimenez, pitched well. Logan Crouse (30th round), another teenager, has yet to debut in 2016 but has some upside as well.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the class has been Kyle Garlick, a redshirt senior signee in the 28th round, who’s hit .343 in 101 pro games, including .3335 with 11 home runs in 41 games this season with the Quakes.
Add in strong performances from Andrew Sopko (seventh round) and Michael Boyle (12th round), and it’s not all bad news. This class will certainly take time but the return could be significant.
CONTINUE READING: How to get the most out of the 2016 draft
Now, onto this year’s draft and how the Dodgers could make the most of their bonus pool. For those of you who aren’t familiar with draft bonus pools, here’s a short rundown: every pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a monetary value.
The total value of every team’s picks in those 10 rounds constitutes the amount they can spend without incurring penalties. Teams that spend up to 5 percent over the pool are taxed 75 percent on the overage; 5-10 percent over the pool results in a 75 percent tax on the overage, as well as the loss of the team’s first round pick (or highest pick) in the next draft.
If a team exceeds its limits by 10-15 percent, there’s a 100% tax on the overage, as well as losing the next year’s first and second rounders or top two picks; more than 15 percent is 100 percent on the overages and the loss of the team’s first round (or highest) pick in the next two drafts.
Two factors are immediately worth noting: first, teams generally go 5 percent over the threshold because a 75 percent tax on the overage isn’t a significant deterrent. Second, players taken outside the top 10 rounds can sign for up to $100,000 with no penalty.
That means the Dodgers, who have a bonus pool of $9,336,500 this year, the highest figure since the new system was implemented in 2012, can actually spend $9,803,325, along with signing as many post-10th round picks for up to $100,000 as they want, without losing a draft pick.
All told, the Dodgers’ draft bill could exceed $10 million after taxes. So how does a franchise that has spent like Scrooge McDuck on international free agents during the current signing period maximize their return on draft day?
CONTINUE READING: Take the best player available? That’s subjective
The Notorious B.P.A
An overwhelmingly common refrain from scouting directors and front office executives on draft day is that the team is targeting the “best player available.” A misconception among fans is that most teams’ draft boards are identical. They’re not.
So, when the Dodgers take a player in the second round after he was ranked by Baseball America or MLB.com as a fifth-rounder, fans tend to freak out. Take a deep breath and remember that rankings after the first round can be completely different from team to team, as well as to outside evaluators.
Now, this was seemingly the Dodgers’ approach last year. Buehler and Funkhouser were each seen as top-10 picks at one point during the spring, so getting them in the second half of the first round was a coup of sorts.
Hansen was also ranked highly by some publications and Davis was seen as a top second- or third-round prospect even after his injury.
This approach also prevents teams from “drafting for need,” which is a hilarious consideration in baseball. When most prospects take three or four years from being drafted to reach the Majors, selecting the third baseman rated No. 40 over the right fielder rated No. 25 makes almost no sense. Who knows what will happen?
It seems like this will be the way the Dodgers operate once again in 2016, but that shouldn’t preclude from exploring other options.
CONTINUE READING: Taking advantage of late-falling prospects
The “Wide Net”
The Dodgers can spend $9.8 million this year (excluding $100k for those taken after the 10th round), so why tie nearly two-thirds of that up in their first three picks? The bonus slots for the No. 20, No. 32 and No. 36 picks is a total of $6,048,000.
While almost $4 million for the Dodgers’ remaining picks in the first 10 rounds seems like a lot, a good chunk of that will disappear with the next handful of picks.
If the Dodgers went cheap with one or two of their early picks, they could save a significant amount of money for players who fall due to signability concerns. This happens every year: a high school player’s dad tells teams his son wants $5 million or he goes to school, he falls out of the first five rounds, then suddenly has a change of heart and will sign for a cool $1 million.
It’s definitely a risk, taking a couple guys early who may not be the best player on the board, but potentially signing a handful of high-ceiling prospects late could negate that. And infusing a deep and talented system with several top second- and third-round quality talents would give the Dodgers more young prospects than they’d know what to do with.
CONTINUE READING: Using spending power as an advantage
The “Big Fish”
The other side of having plenty of money is being able to throw a big bonus at a draft selection who should have gone in the top-10 picks.
Take last year’s 37th overall pick, for example. Daz Cameron, son of Mike (yes, I feel old too), was widely considered a top-10 talent. However, a high bonus demand was met with hesitance by clubs to match it and his stock began to fall.
Then, the Houston Astros, who had a whopping $17 million bonus pool, decided to nab him for $4 million at the tail end of the first round. They already had two picks in the top five, and then added another top 10 talent at No. 37.
While the Dodgers don’t have any top-10 selections this year, there’s a chance to player on the cusp of being one could fall into their laps. Prep pitching always seems to fall on draft day and there are a few prospects this year who figure to go lower than expected.
New York High School righty Ian Anderson and Kansas High School lefty Joey Wentz are two who could end up in college if the price isn’t right. Either could be a great pick at No. 32 for the Dodgers. They have the money to spend, even if it means going cheap elsewhere.
So, what’s your opinion? Should the Dodgers go the predictable route and take the best player available? Should they try to sign as many top round talents as possible? Or should they go for the bonus baby? Be sure to stick around for more content as the MLB draft approaches!
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