The Los Angeles Dodgers enter the 2026 season as overwhelming favorites to win the National League West, with odds that imply a roughly 3-in-4 chance of another division title. Market projections and public sentiment largely agree, placing the Dodgers in their own tier atop the division.
That confidence stems from both recent history and current projections. The Dodgers have dominated the National League West for more than a decade and again project as a 100-plus win team by most advanced models, with division projections heavily tilted in their favor. For bettors looking at division futures via outlets such as Spin City Casino, the picture is consistent: the Dodgers sit as one of the heaviest division favorites in baseball.
A look across the rest of the National League West reveals a clear structure behind Los Angeles. San Diego, San Francisco, and Arizona cluster together as mid-range contenders, each with realistic paths to a Wild Card berth but longer paths to a division crown. Colorado remains a clear long shot and profiles more as a spoiler than a true challenger over 162 games.
Dodgers Sit In Their Own Tier
Sportsbooks and projection models alike see the Dodgers as the class of the division. Their division odds are strong-favorite territory, reflecting a combination of elite star power, depth, and organizational continuity. The roster blends established veterans, prime-age stars, and emerging contributors, giving Los Angeles both a high floor and a high ceiling.
Projection systems that simulate the season thousands of times tend to land the Dodgers in the low-100s for wins. Those simulations consistently produce very high probabilities of a division title, well above what any of their National League West rivals currently show. That separation underscores how large the gap appears on paper before the season begins.
The Dodgers’ recent track record in the West supports those numbers. They have repeatedly posted 90–100-plus win seasons, often clinching the division with weeks to spare. Even in years where injuries or inconsistency have crept in, the combination of depth and midseason flexibility has allowed them to stabilize and pull away.
San Diego Padres: Talented, But Still Chasing
Behind the Dodgers, the San Diego Padres often show up as the most likely challenger. Their division odds sit in the mid-range, reflecting respect for the club’s talent but also an acknowledgment of the gap that still exists. The implied probability for a Padres division win is modest compared to Los Angeles, but higher than the rest of the pack.
San Diego is coming off a solid season that earned them a postseason berth, but still left them short of the division lead. The roster features high-end talent in the lineup and a pitching staff with upside, yet the organization has not consistently converted those pieces into a true wire-to-wire divisional race.
Win-total projections for the Padres typically land in the low-to-mid-80s. That suggests a team that should stay in contention for a Wild Card spot and could pressure the Dodgers if things break right. To turn that into a serious division threat, San Diego likely needs both internal improvements and some degree of regression or health issues from Los Angeles.
San Francisco Giants: Seeking Stability And Upside
The San Francisco Giants enter 2026 with mid-tier division odds that place them in the same general neighborhood as Arizona, a step behind San Diego, and well behind Los Angeles. Their price reflects a team with plausible upside but also a range of outcomes that includes another .500-type season.
San Francisco’s recent campaigns have swung between surprise contention and frustrating inconsistency. They have shown an ability to find value on the margins, particularly with pitching and versatile position players. However, the club has lacked a sustained run of elite-level production that would justify shorter division odds.
Offseason moves focused on tightening the pitching staff and adding more reliable contributions around the core. Projections often place the Giants near .500 or slightly above, with an outside shot at a Wild Card spot if their health and player development break in their favor. Their path to a division title likely requires both internal breakout seasons and a step back from the Dodgers.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Young Core Aiming Higher
The Arizona Diamondbacks sit close to San Francisco in most preseason outlooks. Their division odds place them firmly in the long-shot range, but not at the very bottom of the board. Arizona’s profile is that of a team with an intriguing young core and a wide performance band.
A recent up-and-down season saw the Diamondbacks hover around .500 while integrating younger players and reshaping their roster. At times, the club flashed postseason-level potential, but inconsistency and pitching depth issues ultimately held them back from a sustained run.
Arizona’s offseason prioritized pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen, to support a lineup that has pieces capable of driving a playoff push. Projections often set their win total just under or around .500. If the young position players take a step forward and the retooled pitching staff holds up, the Diamondbacks could outperform their odds, though they still project a tier or two below the Dodgers on true talent.
Colorado Rockies: Focused On Development
The Colorado Rockies enter 2026 as the clear long shot in the West. Their division odds sit at the far end of the board, with implied probabilities often near or below 1%. That reflects both recent results and the current state of the roster.
Colorado has struggled to keep pace with the rest of the division, particularly on the pitching side. Run prevention at altitude remains a persistent challenge, and the organization has not yet found a consistent formula for building and sustaining a staff that can hold up over a full season. Offensively, the Rockies have individual bright spots, but depth and impact talent still lag behind their rivals.
Most projection systems place Colorado well below .500 with minimal postseason chances. As a result, the Rockies’ 2026 campaign profiles more as a developmental year focused on giving opportunities to younger players and evaluating which pieces can be part of the next competitive core.
Outlook For The National League West Race
Taken together, odds and projections point toward another Dodgers-led season in the National League West. Los Angeles begins in a commanding position, both in market pricing and in statistical models that evaluate roster strength and depth. Their combination of star power, organizational stability, and recent performance keeps them at the center of any divisional discussion.
San Diego, San Francisco, and Arizona each have paths to contention, particularly for Wild Card spots, but all three start the year chasing a significant gap. Any true division race likely requires either a major step forward from one of those clubs or an unexpected stumble from the Dodgers. Colorado, meanwhile, projects as a distant fifth, more likely to influence the race through individual series than by making a sustained push of its own.
For now, the National League West still runs through Chavez Ravine. Every other team in the division begins 2026 trying to close both a statistical and a structural gap, while the Dodgers aim to turn strong preseason odds into another banner season.
