Walker Buehler is a free agent for the first time in his career, and he’s one of the more interesting names on the open market.
On one hand, Buehler has proven himself to be an ace for most of his career and has a history of dominant playoff performances. On the other, he’s already underwent a second Tommy John surgery and was far from effective for most of his first season back.
The Los Angeles Dodgers had to make a decision on whether to offer Buehler the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer for the 2025 season, which they chose against.
Ultimately, their decision was based on not wanting to force Buehler into accepting the qualifying offer, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic:
But the Dodgers did not want to force the issue with Buehler, who had a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts in the regular season before completing the playoffs with 10 scoreless innings.
If Buehler had the qualifying offer placed on him, his market would have likely diminished significantly due to the questions surrounding him along with the draft pick compensation a team would lose if signing him.
That would have given Buehler little to no choice on his next contract and instead of potentially receiving multi-year deals, the qualifying offer from the Dodgers probably would have been his best contract:
The qualifying offer would have damaged Buehler in the market, leaving him with almost no choice but to accept. The Dodgers, as a team that will pay the luxury tax, only would have received a pick after the fourth round if he rejected. This way, Buehler can negotiate a multiyear deal with the team of his choosing.
So far, the free-agent starting pitcher market has been moving quickly with Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi and Frankie Montas among those who have already signed.
Buehler’s market has also developed a bit, and the clubs interested in him include the Dodgers, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs and New York Mets. Buehler also has some reported interest in joining the Yankees, but the Dodgers are seemingly his top choice.
The Athletics also made their case to sign Buehler, but he declined to play in Sacramento.
Even though he finished the 2024 season with a 5.38 ERA across 75.1 innings while posting a career-worst 10.5% strikeout-to-walk rate, Buehler should have no issues finding a lucrative deal.
Will Dodgers re-sign Walker Buehler?
The Dodgers went into the offseason with starting pitching at the top of their wishlist, but signing Snell makes it unlikely that Buehler will return.
Clayton Kershaw also shared his intention to return to the Dodgers, and they are believed to be the favorites for Roki Sasaki. While they may still add another starter, it would likely be more of a depth piece or backend type.
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