The Los Angeles Dodgers have won the National League West nine of the past 10 seasons as the division’s juggernaut, but in 2023, they have a real threat to their crown in the San Diego Padres.
The Dodgers and Padres took two separate approaches to this past offseason, with San Diego aggressively adding star talent to their team in an extension of the past two years, while L.A. was much more conservative in their approach to roster building.
San Diego’s aggressive offseason that included the signing of Xander Bogaerts also came after defeating the Dodgers in the 2022 N.L. Division Series, while L.A. lost Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney, among others in free agency.
The Dodgers did add J.D. Martinez and Noah Syndergaard as their two big additions, but the talent level just doesn’t compare to what they lost.
This has all led to the Dodgers no longer being the runaway clear favorites to win the NL West, and Soto believes the Padres should be making the Dodgers feel worried this year, he said via MLB on TBS Leadoff:
“We’re not worried about them. They should be worrying about us. I mean, we showed it last year. We showed them what we have in the playoffs. We came out, played good baseball and beat them. Now we add more players, we have more depth in our lineup, our bullpen is great. I would say we have one of the best bullpens in the league. I think they should be worrying about us. We don’t worry about anybody.”
Soto can’t be faulted for voicing confidence in his team, and of course he won’t come out and say another club is better, but the numbers also back up his point.
During the 2022 season, the Dodgers finished 22 games ahead of the Padres with 111 wins compared to 89, but this year the two clubs project to be much closer.
Although the offseason moves were not a difference of 22 wins, the Dodgers’ natural regression from a historic season should make that total much closer, even if their two rosters didn’t change at all.
The Dodgers were still favored to win the NL West heading into 2023, according to FanGraphs projections, but through the first 10 games of the season, they now give the edge to the Padres with 90 wins compared to 88 for the Dodgers.
FanGraphs also gives the Padres a 50% chance to win the division, while the Dodgers are second at 36.6%. The playoff odds are closer, however, with the Padres at 84.7% and the Dodgers at 77.7%.
Dave Roberts: Dodgers have ‘legit rivalry’ with Padres
Historically, the Dodgers and Padres have not been much of a rivalry. The Dodgers are 509-415 all-time against San Diego and swept the Padres during the 2020 postseason en route to a World Series championship.
During the 2022 regular season, the Dodgers won 14 of their 19 matchups, but the Padres got the last laugh as they eliminated L.A. in four games during the NLDS.
With the Padres’ new roster, they, along with the Dodgers, are the two best teams in the NL West, and manager Dave Roberts believes the teams have created a real rivalry.
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