Nolan Arenado invoked the full no-trade clause in his contract to block a deal that would’ve sent him from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Houston Astros.
Arenado has spent four seasons with the Cardinals, but his last two have been a downward trend for the former perennial MVP candidate. A rumored directive from Cardinals ownership has pushed their front office to be active in ways to shed payroll, which is a main driver in their efforts to facilitate offseason trades.
The Southern California native could have opted out of his substantial contract a few years ago, but chose to stay with the Cardinals under his existing deal. But organizational outlooks change and the pair seem destined for a split.
Arenado grew up a Dodgers fan, and there’s some speculation the 33-year-old is holding out for the possibility of being traded to his childhood team, per John Denton of MLB.com:
“He doesn’t want to do something in sort of a panic move this time of year. He wants to wait and see what his best options are. I think we all know, we all understand Nolan Arenado wants to be told no by the Dodgers. That’s his first choice, that’s where he still wants to go. The Dodgers have kind of downplayed their interest in him.
“They’ve mentioned how Max Muncy will be on the roster to start the season. Don’t be snookered by that. The Dodgers still want Nolan Arenado. They still have an interest in him. But if they talk it down and act like they’re not that interested, they might be able to get out from under some of the money.”
In regard to the Dodgers having interest in Arenado, Denton believes there is enough there to make this a storyline worth keeping an eye on:
“Yeah, I think it’s strong. I think they know that Nolan would like to be there, that’s his first choice. He grew up in Orange County, he grew up a fan of the Dodgers. I know a lot of people in St. Louis have always thought that he wanted to be there. Nolan committed everything to St. Louis, he’s given it his all in St Louis. But if this thing does go where he goes somewhere else, I still think the Dodgers are at the top of his list. Nolan is going to hold out until the Dodgers tell him no to his face.
“He’s not going to take a deal to Houston right now. He’s not going to take a deal to Philly until he is told to his face by the Dodgers that, ‘no, we don’t want you.’ I just don’t believe that to be the case. I think the Dodgers still have a tremendous interest in having Nolan Arenado. … Like I said, until the Dodgers bluntly, tell him, ‘No,’ I think he’s going to hold out for that option, first and foremost.”
A major roadblock in any potential deal between the Dodgers and Cardinals is facilitating a trade that works for both parties. Arenado is owed $74 million for the remaining years on his contract, a large sum for the aging and declining corner infielder.
The Dodgers front office has made it clear they intend to push the limits of payroll if it results in making their roster as complete as possible. However, the position they’re in didn’t come from reckless spending and any move to take on such a sum of money would have to come with careful evaluation.
Should the Dodgers trade for Nolan Arenado?
A tough factor in this is the element of already having Max Muncy at third base, who is the better overall player given his contract and recent production. Arenado can still be a quality player if he finds a bit of his stride from a few years ago with a Gold Glove at third base and potential impact bat.
Money is another element, but the Dodgers could absorb it and hand the cost taken on over the coming years. The Astros were reportedly aiming to cover a large chunk of the money still outstanding, which equates to a relative salary dump.
Arenado does provide a right-handed bat with immense defensive value, but the log jam with Muncy and Freddie Freeman at the corners, make it a tough situation to shuffle.
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