Even with another winter of buzz because of lavish spending in free agency, the Los Angeles Dodgers in some sense are in a familiar position as they head into another season with World Series expectations.
They do so with 2025 PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus having the Dodgers remaining National League West champions by finishing the season 104-58, good for the best record in baseball. It’s the third time in the last six years Baseball Prospectus has estimated the Dodgers would win at least 100 games.
Next-closest for the 2025 season are the Atlanta Braves, who PECOTA have going 92-70.
In the American League, the projection model forecasts the New York Yankees (90-72) a hair ahead of the Texas Rangers (89-73).
PECOTA also gave the Dodgers 100% odds of making the playoffs in 2025, and within that is 98.1% chance of reaching the NL Division Series. They are the only team Baseball Prospectus has projected as a guaranteed lock for the 2025 MLB postseason.
The Dodgers additionally were given 97.7% odds of winning the NL West in 2025. They have been crowned division champions in 11 of the past 12 seasons.
Furthermore, the Dodgers have the best odds to win the World Series in 2025 at 20.7%. Behind them are the Braves at 9.7%, followed by the Yankees with 9%.
Last year, the Dodgers and Braves tied for highest postseason odds from the statistical model, with each receiving a 99.8% chance of playing October baseball. Both teams wound up reaching the postseason, with the Dodgers of course winning the World Series while the Braves were eliminated in the NL Wild Card round.
The 2025 PECOTA projections also have the Dodgers leading baseball with 834 runs scored. The Braves are second in that category as well, with a projection of 761.
On the pitching and defense side, the Dodgers are estimated to allow 625 runs, fewest among all teams. One MLB executive recently raised questions over the Dodgers’ defense due in part to Mookie Betts moving to shortstop, and Michael Conforto and Teoscar Hernández being slated to man the corner outfield positions.
Dodgers’ PECOTA projections since winning NL West in 2013
| Year | PECOTA | Actual W-L |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 93-69 | 92-70 |
| 2014 | 98-64 | 94-68 |
| 2015 | 97-65 | 92-70 |
| 2016 | 94-68 | 91-71 |
| 2017 | 97-65 | 104-58 |
| 2018 | 99-63 | 92-71 |
| 2019 | 95-67 | 106-56 |
| 2020 | 38-22 | 43-17 |
| 2021 | 103-59 | 106-56 |
| 2022 | 98-64 | 111-51 |
| 2023 | 97-65 | 100-62 |
| 2024 | 101-61 | 98-64 |
| 2025 | 104-58 | TBD |
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