The 2021 PECOTA projections again are bullish on the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are coming off their first World Series since 1988. The analytical model forecasts the Dodgers finishing atop the National League West with 103 wins, which also is projected to lead the Majors.
PECOTA has the New York Yankees finishing with the second-best record at 97-65. That narrowly edges the San Diego Padres, who are projected to go 96-66. Prior to the 2020 season being delayed until July, the Dodgers were gauged to also go 103-59.
When the schedule was shortened to 60 games, PECOTA predicted a 38-win season that paced the Majors. It wound up being modest as the Dodgers went 43-17 to claim an eighth consecutive NL West title and finish with the best record in baseball.
Plenty of eyes figure to be on the division this season as the Padres were the most aggressive team throughout the winter. They first traded for Blake Snell, then acquired Yu Darvish to further bolster their starting rotation.
San Diego was crowned kings of the offseason, but some of their shine was wiped away last week when Trevor Bauer announced his decision to sign with the Dodgers. They already were ranked by some as having the best starting rotation even after the Padres’ flurry of activity and prior to adding the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner.
What the Dodgers’ 2021 projections don’t account for is the potential re-signing of Justin Turner. He’s long been said to be a focus of theirs, though it’s peculiar the start of Spring Training is just over one week away yet Turner remains unsigned.
However, all calculations were made under the assumption that MLB and the Players Association will ultimately agree on a universal designated hitter.
PECOTA projecting the Dodgers to finish seven games ahead of the Padres in the NL West standings is the second-largest disparity amongst all division. The Mets (96 wins) are predicted to be 11 games ahead of the Washington Nationals, and so too are the Yankees on the Tampa Bay Rays.
Dodgers’ PECOTA projections during NL West streak
| Year | PECOTA | Actual W-L |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 93-69 | 92-70 |
| 2014 | 98-64 | 94-68 |
| 2015 | 97-65 | 92-70 |
| 2016 | 94-68 | 91-71 |
| 2017 | 97-65 | 104-58 |
| 2018 | 99-63 | 92-71 |
| 2019 | 95-67 | 106-56 |
| 2020 | 38-22 | 43-17 |
| 2021 | 103-59 | 106-56 |
| 2022 | 98-64 | 111-51 |
| 2023 | 97-65 | 100-62 |
| 2024 | 101-61 | 98-64 |
| 2025 | 104-58 | TBD |
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