Our long national nightmare is finally over. The Los Angeles Dodgers made a move.
On Wednesday morning, the club announced a three-team trade with the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago White Sox to acquire three Minor Leaguers from Chicago.
Los Angeles sent three prospects to Cincinnati as part of the deal.
Let’s review who went where and what the trade means.
Dodgers Traded:
After spending the last five months in the Dodgers’ system, Jose Peraza is packing his suitcases yet again.
The Venezuelan utility man played in 22 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2015, batting .289/.304/.378 with seven stolen bases in as many attempts. He spent time at second base, shortstop and in center field.
Already on the 40-man roster, Peraza was called up in September and played in seven games, but collected just 25 plate appearances before succumbing to a season-ending hamstring injury. In his debut season at the Major League level, he batted .182 with stole three bases.
Peraza is widely regarded as a Top-100 prospect given his contact ability, defensive versatility and speed. However, his immediate future with the Dodgers seemed murky with the club deciding to re-sign veteran Chase Utley to man second base next season.
Thus, Peraza likely would have been back in Oklahoma City to start the year. Dodgers director of player development Gabe Kapler will tell you that Scott Schebler is a great person. And most certainly is.
A 26th-round pick in the 2010 draft, Schebler worked hard to reach the Majors last season, collecting his first three big league home runs in the process.
The Cedar Rapids, Iowa native is beloved by teammates and coaches alike for his attitude and work ethic. Schebler had a breakout campaign in 2013 with High-A Rancho Cucamonga, where he hit .296/.360/.581 with 27 home runs and added 16 stolen bases.
The following year, he went to Double-A Chattanooga and belted 28 home runs with a .921 on-base plus slugging percentage. Last season his OPS fell to .731 with Oklahoma City, where he hit just 13 home runs.
Like Peraza, Schebler figured to be caught in a logjam on the Major League roster. The Dodgers still have a full outfield and Schebler’s likeliest outcome is as a backup in one of the corner positions.
Schebler should get an opportunity to play in Cincinnati, especially if Jay Bruce is dealt. Brandon Dixon was a surprise third-round selection in 2013. The Arizona Wildcat had a rough debut, followed by an improved 2014 campaign with the Quakes.
In 2015, the 23 year old began the year in Double-A Tulsa, where he struggled. He was sent back to Rancho Cucamonga and thrived, batting .299/.358/.575 with 11 home runs in 45 games.
However, upon returning to Tulsa, Dixon’s numbers dropped and he hit just .205/.263/.352 the rest of the way. Dixon is a good athlete and has played second base as well as left and center field for the Dodgers.
He has good speed, stealing 63 bases in three seasons. However, he needs to improve his bat-to-ball skills in order to give himself a chance at a major league career.
CONTINUE READING: Analyzing Prospects The Dodgers Received
Dodgers Received:
The Dodgers’ big prize in the deal is Frankie Montas. That’s both in the literal and figurative sense.
Hilariously listed at 185 lbs., Montas resembles Bartolo Colon after second lunch. But hey, he can throw 100 mph.
Originally signed by the Red Sox in 2009, Montas was included in the three-team deal that landed Jose Iglesias with the Detroit Tigers and Jake Peavy in Boston in 2013.
Montas entered 2015 with only one game above A-ball under his belt, but managed to pitch his way onto the big league staff. He split time between the rotation and the bullpen, having far more success in relief.
Montas’ calling card is his elite arm strength and he also mixes in a good slider. However, he doesn’t have a third pitch and his command and control are erratic. As a result, many evaluators believe he’s destined for the bullpen.
However, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman wants to first give Montas an opportunity to establish himself as a starting pitcher. Either way, the hard-throwing right-hander has a huge ceiling and his floor is likely a setup man.
Former Los Angeles Lakers center Mychal Thompson has two sons who play professional sports and now both of them will play for California teams. Trayce Thompson made his major league debut last season with the Sox, batting .295/.363/.533 in 44 games.
Some may look at the slash line and wonder why Chicago would give him up. A closer examination reveals the possible answer. The White Sox called up Thompson at the beginning of August.
Through his first 14 Major League games, he hit .469 with a 1.358 OPS. In September, he followed with a far more realistic line of .234/.306/.429. His career Minor League line is .241/.319/.429.
So, before you talk yourself into believing he’s the next Yasiel Puig, remember to look for context. Thompson has five-tool potential, but needs to make more contact to unlock it.
He’s hit 101 home runs and stolen 94 bases in his first seven Minor League seasons. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots as well. Again, with the full outfield in Los Angeles, it’s likely he begins next season in Triple-A.
The final piece of the Dodgers’ puzzle is Micah Johnson. Just as the previously mentioned prospects, Johnson made his big league debut this year, hitting .230/.306/.270 with three steals. Like with Thompson, Johnson’s debut should be taken with a grain of salt.
During his Minor League career, he batted .301/.368/.431. He seems to take a half a season to get accustomed to new leagues, as he’s always struggled at new levels after midseason callups, followed by hitting very well there the following year.
And, while he hit just .230 in his Major League debut, his BABIP was .329, which indicates remarkably poor luck. While he’s fast and plays second base, Johnson shouldn’t be compared to Peraza.
Johnson walks more and hits for more power, but he lacks the defensive ability and versatility of Peraza, as well as his ability to make consistent contact. Expanding his versatility seems likely, though Johnson must improve his defense at second to justify a spot on the 25-man roster.
CONTINUE READING: Ceilings And Floors Of Dodgers’ Newest Prospects
Ceilings and Floors
In a somewhat unpredictable move, the Dodgers traded the certainty of Jose Peraza for the uncertainty of Frankie Montas.
While Peraza is something of a known quantity, Montas offers plenty of variation in his future outcomes.
Peraza should be a Major Leaguer due to his defensive versatility alone. He’s capable of playing all three up-the-middle positions (excluding catcher, of course) and doing so fairly well (though he’s not great at short).
While that gets him on the 25-man roster, Peraza will need to be a 60 or better hitter to get into the lineup, meaning he needs to hit for a high average in order to produce at the plate, since he doesn’t walk much.
He has just a five percent walk rate and .085 ISO over his career in the Minors. Montas will be a Major League as well, with a dominant heater and slider.
However, the role remains up in the air. He’s started 80 of his 92 career Minor League games, with all of his Minor League appearances coming as part of a rotation since 2014.
Montas’ strikeout rate over that time has been solid, but not what you’d expect from someone who throws as hard as he does. Remarkably, over his last 208 innings between the Minors and Majors, he’s surrendered just seven home runs.
His walk rate could improve, though at less than four per nine innings; meaning it’s not a liability. In essence, the Dodgers traded someone who could be a second-division starter but is more likely a utility man for a someone who could be a No. 3 starter, but is more likely a setup man.
Both are still young enough to improve and both have risks attached, but Montas’ is greater. The other pieces stack up well for the Dodgers.
Thompson and Schebler are somewhat similar, with Thompson having more defensive versatility and speed while Schebler has more power and a better present hit tool. Johnson is an actual prospect, while Dixon may never make it out of Double-A.
In terms of one-to-one value, the Dodgers have a definite advantage. Montas-Peraza is a push, Thompson–Schebler is also a push, while Johnson-Dixon leans heavily in Johnson’s favor.
Are More Trades Ahead?
Is that it? Are the Dodgers done? Of course not! The biggest question this trade raises is how long are the new Dodgers going to be part of the organization?
Montas’ pure stuff is something scouts dream on. However, analytics may not be as kind. His high walk rates and less than stellar strikeout rates in the Minors could lead the underwhelming statistical projections, such as the marks ZIPS and Steamer give him.
Thompson and Johnson, too, are upside players with tools. While Thompson is more well-rounded, Johnson has easy 70 speed, which some team would love to see at the top of their order.
Johnson may have a path to the Majors after 2016, but Thompson is not likely to win a starting job with the Dodgers in the near future. Both are expendable.
Certainly, nothing is written in stone. The Dodgers could hold onto all three to give them options for 2016 and beyond. However, if one or all three are used to deal for a No. 2 starter, fans are unlikely to complain.
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