While the Los Angeles Dodgers were known for taking high school pitchers under former scouting director Logan White, he established a different trend later in his tenure. From 2009 to the present, the Dodgers selected a college pitcher with their top pick in odd years.
White drafted Aaron Miller in 2009, Chris Reed in 2011 and Chris Anderson in 2013. Meanwhile, Walker Buehler was current Dodgers scouting director Billy Gasparino’s top pick in 2015.
Could that trend continue this year? There are certainly some interesting college pitchers who should be available at No. 23.
Griffin Canning, RHP, UCLA | B/T: R/R
Scouting Consensus: Listed at 6’1 and 170 lbs. Four-pitch mix and can throw all of them for strikes. Fastball has average velocity but gets into mid 90s. Slider can get swings and misses. Changeup might be Canning’s best offering.
Jared’s Take: Not the highest ceiling but a very high floor. Probably fits in the back of a rotation. Slider was very good this year. Should cruise through the Minors.
Risk: Medium-low. Some questions about his workload at UCLA but otherwise no issues.
Availability: Medium. Some teams like Canning in the late teens, but he could fall to the end of Round 1.
Outlook: Not the most attractive option available but he’ll probably reach the Majors by 2019 and slot into the No. 4 or 5 spot in a rotation.
David Peterson, LHP, Oregon | B/T: L/L
Scouting Consensus: Listed at 6’6 and 240 lbs. Huge, workhorse frame. Fastball sits in the low 90s and touches higher. Slider is his primary breaking ball. Also throws a curve and change. Threw plenty of strikes this year.
Jared’s Take: Peterson made headlines with a 20-strikeout performance in April. Results took a huge step forward this spring, but he needs to use the changeup more. Not a ton of ceiling but should pitch in the Majors, barring injury.
Risk: Medium-low. Has started since his freshman year. Delivery is a little odd but no red flags.
Availability: Medium-low. The size, stuff and results this spring likely push him into the top 20.
Outlook: Probably won’t be there but would be a decent option for the Dodgers if he falls. Again, not overly exciting but should, at worst, profile as a reliever who can get lefties and righties out.
NEXT PAGE: Profiling Missour’s Tanner Houck, and two others
Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri | B/T: R/R
Scouting Consensus: Listed at 6’5 and 215 lbs. Big, physical frame. Fastball sits in the low 90s, touches the mid 90s. Has a lot of movement on pitches due to his low arm slot. Slider could be an out pitch.
Jared’s Take: Stuff backed up late this spring and has caused his stock to drop. Concerns over Houck’s arm slot lead to questions if he can stay in a rotation. Higher ceiling/lower floor than Canning and Peterson.
Risk: Medium-high. The downtick in his stuff combined with the questions about his future as a starter make Houck a volatile prospect.
Availability: Medium-high. Struggled at the end of the season. Should be available in the 20s.
Outlook: Probably too much risk to draft 23rd overall. Could go higher, but with other options likely available, I’d pass.
Nate Pearson, RHP, College of Central Florida | B/T: R/R
Scouting Consensus: Listed at 6’5, 240 lbs. Huge frame. Fastball in the mid 90s. Developing slider. Command and secondaries need development.
Jared’s Take: Recently touched 101 mph in a bullpen session. If a team falls in love with the frame and arm strength, Pearson could go in the 20s.
Risk: Medium-high. There’s a good chance he ends up in the bullpen and/or the secondary pitches don’t come around.
Availability: Medium-high. While the recent bullpen session could push Pearson up draft boards, he’s still very likely to be there at No. 23.
Outlook: High ceiling/low floor guy. A team that has had success developing pitchers could take a chance on him. Ways away from the Majors.
Brendon Little, LHP, State College of Florida | B/T: L/L
Scouting Consensus: Listed at 6’2, 195 lbs. Transferred from North Carolina. Broke out in the Cape Cod League. Power fastball up to 97 mph. Power curve with a 12-6 break. Still developing his changeup. Command and delivery need refinement.
Jared’s Take: Another hard-throwing junior college arm from Florida. Comes with a good curve and an iffy delivery. Looks like the delivery’s been cleaned up a little this year, which is promising for his future command profile.
Outpitched Pearson in a head-to-head matchup in February, tallying 10 strikeouts in five innings.
Risk: Medium. The fastball and curve should get Little to the Majors. Ultimate question is, rotation or bullpen?
Availability: High. Would be an overdraft at No. 23. Interesting target for an overslot deal at the Dodgers’ No. 62 overall pick.
Outlook: Doesn’t make a ton of sense at No. 23 unless the Dodgers see something other teams don’t. Like Pearson, high ceiling/low floor type who will need some years in the Minors to develop.
Scouting Glossary
Scouts and evaluators have a shorthand for explaining how good certain tools are. It starts at Average, or 50 on the 20-80 scale, and has three standard deviations in each direction. Here are examples:
80 – Elite | Almost never given out to prospects, still rare among Major Leaguers. Think Clayton Kershaw’s curveball or Yasiel Puig’s arm strength.
70 – Plus-plus | Still rare, but more common than 80s. Think Justin Turner’s defense or Rich Hill’s curveball.
60 – Plus | Pretty common among prospects and Major Leaguers alike. Think Corey Seager’s arm strength or Kenta Maeda’s slider.
50 – Average | The most common grade. Think Corey Seager’s speed or Maeda’s fastball.
40 | There really isn’t a name for 40 grades, they’re just 40s. Think Joc Pederson’s speed or Seager’s defense.
30 – Poor | Even rarer. Think Puig’s plate discipline or Kershaw’s changeup.
20 – Bad | It’s not really identified as “Bad” but it should be. Think Chase Utley’s arm, Adrian Gonzalez’s speed and Pedro Baez’s pace of play.
Scouting consensus culled from MLB.com, FanGraphs, Baseball America and other sites. Video courtesy of Steve Fiorindo of The Prospect Pipeline, The Prospect Lab and MaxPreps.
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