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Los Angeles Dodgers scouting director Billy Gasparino selected college bats with his top pick in each of his first two drafts. Gasparino added another first rounder last year in Will Smith.
While the projected top-10 of the 2017 MLB Draft doesn’t offer any can’t-miss type college hitters, the latter half of the first round could produce some intriguing options. Some of whom are outlined below.
The Dodgers will make their first selection at No. 23 overall. If you’re not familiar with scouting grades (i.e. 60 arm, plus-plus speed), refer to the glossary at the end of the article.
Keston Hiura, 2B/OF, UC Irvine | B/T: R/R
Scouting Consensus: Listed at 6’0, 185 lbs. One of the best pure bats in the draft. Makes loud contact, hitting over .400 his junior season. Projects for average power and is a solid runner. Hiura is playing through an elbow injury that may require Tommy John surgery after he’s drafted. What’s more, he may or may not remain an infielder.
Jared’s Take: Very unique prospect. Hasn’t played the field since last spring due to the elbow but has hit very well. Some swing-and-miss (36 strikeouts in 53 games) but also excellent on-base ability (50 walks). Should move quickly through the Minors once he signs, but could miss a year if Tommy John is required. Similar overall profile to Ian Happ.
Risk: Medium-low. Scouts are concerned over where Hiura will play with the glove, but confident that he’ll hit. If he’s a left fielder, that diminishes his value but he’s still likely to make it to the Majors.
Availability: Medium. With a lack of strong college bats in the class, a team in the teens could easily draft him.
Outlook: Hiura is one of the safer bats in the class and one of the younger college juniors; won’t turn 21 until August. Take him, fix his elbow and he’ll come back better than ever. Hey, it happened to Walker Buehler.
Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt | B/T: L/R
Scouting Consensus: Listed at 5’10, 180 lbs. Athletic frame and loaded with tools. Kendall is a double plus runner, plus defender in center field, and a threat on the basepaths. Average to above power potential. Serious questions about his ability to make contact.
Jared’s Take: Was projected as the top pick coming into the year. Never bought the hype. Swing needs a lot of work; Dodgers have had some success in that area. Going to be a project.
Risk: Medium-high. If the contact issues don’t go away, Kendall may not project as a starter.
Availability: Medium-low. He’s falling down draft boards due to the contact issues but he’s probably still going to be selected in the top 20.
Outlook: The value dictates that the Dodgers should take Kendall if he’s available, but I’m just not a huge fan. The last thing you want to do with a first-round hitter is overhaul his swing.
NEXT PAGE: Athletic first baseman, shortstop from North Carolina, and scouting grades
Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri St | B/T: R/R
Scouting Consensus: Listed at 6’2, 220 lbs. Big-bodied infielder with a big bat. Burger has hit 20-plus home runs each of the past two seasons and power projects as plus. Above average hitter, tends not to expand the zone. Rest of profile is underwhelming. Average arm and fringy range at third.
Jared’s Take: Better athlete than he looks. Swing isn’t great, looks like Todd Frazier and Mark Reynolds. Burger is probably a fast mover but will most likely end up at first base down the road. Safer pick than the high schoolers.
Risk: Medium. Bat should get him to the Majors, glove could hold him back.
Availability: Medium. Burger has been connected to some teams in the teens but could fall on draft day.
Outlook: If he can stay at third or even in an outfield corner, I think he’s worth a look for the Dodgers. Otherwise, let another team bite on Burger.
Evan White, 1B/OF, Kentucky | B/T: R/L
Scouting Consensus: Listed at 6’3, 177 lbs. Lean and athletic frame. Smooth stroke from the right side. Hit tool is ahead of power. Outstanding defensive first baseman, athletic enough to play the outfield. Good speed.
Jared’s Take: One of the weirdest prospects in the draft. Righty hitter, lefty thrower, definite negative for me (kidding). Probably doesn’t have the power to profile at first but the defense is so good it’d be hard to move him.
Hasn’t walked much this year but is hitting .380. Hitting a career-high 23 doubles in 44 games is a good sign. Late riser. Reminds me of Smith’s late rise/overall profile last year.
Risk: Medium-low. Should hit, it’s just a matter of how much power he develops. Athleticism/defense should get him to the Majors.
Availability: High. Projected to go in the back half of the first round. Dodgers are among the teams that have been connected to White.
Outlook: Could be a stud if he develops power, but that’s a big if.
Logan Warmoth, SS, North Carolina | B/T: R/R
Scouting Consensus: Listed at 6’0, 190 lbs. Athletic middle infielder. Scouts split on whether he’ll stick at shortstop. Warmoth should be able to handle second base. Some pull side power (nine home runs this season). Hit well on the Cape last summer (.780 on-base plus slugging percentage, four home runs in 27 games). High floor.
Jared’s Take: Seems like a San Francisco Giants pick to me. High floor, not a huge ceiling. Not overly athletic. So, he’ll probably end up in San Francisco and torment the Dodgers for a decade.
Risk: Medium-low. Should stay up the middle and hit enough to make it to the show.
Availability: High. Like White, slotted in the 20-30 range.
Outlook: Not a terribly boring prospect but the upside isn’t as high as others. Similar to Gavin Lux from last year.
Scouting Glossary
Scouts and evaluators have a shorthand for explaining how good certain tools are. It starts at Average, or 50 on the 20-80 scale, and has three standard deviations in each direction. Here are examples:
80 – Elite | Almost never given out to prospects, still rare among Major Leaguers. Think Clayton Kershaw’s curveball or Yasiel Puig’s arm strength.
70 – Plus-plus | Still rare, but more common than 80s. Think Justin Turner’s defense or Rich Hill’s curveball.
60 – Plus | Pretty common among prospects and Major Leaguers alike. Think Corey Seager’s arm strength or Kenta Maeda’s slider.
50 – Average | The most common grade. Think Corey Seager’s speed or Maeda’s fastball.
40 | There really isn’t a name for 40 grades, they’re just 40s. Think Joc Pederson’s speed or Seager’s defense.
30 – Poor | Even rarer. Think Puig’s plate discipline or Kershaw’s changeup.
20 – Bad | It’s not really identified as “Bad” but it should be. Think Chase Utley’s arm, Adrian Gonzalez’s speed and Pedro Baez’s pace of play.
Scouting consensus culled from MLB.com, FanGraphs, Baseball America and other sites. Video courtesy of Steve Fiorindo of The Prospect Pipeline, The Prospect Lab and MaxPreps.
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