For most organizations, the starting rotation is always a work-in-progress. They enter Spring Training with questions about who will earn back-of-the-rotation spots and are constantly scouring free agency for someone who can help.
Not so for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
In fact, for the Dodgers, the problem is the exact opposite. Instead of wondering who their fifth starter will be, the club is trying to wade through the problem of having too many starting pitchers.
Los Angeles has veterans, young hurlers and injury-prone options in the middle. So where does that leave them?
At the moment, the Dodgers have Jose De Leon, Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir, Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling, Julio Urias and Alex Wood all on the 40-man rotation with Major League starts under their belt.
That’s 11 starters. And that’s not “we’re desperate for help, so this pitcher is an option” depth, either. Aside from Stripling and Stewart, the other nine would all start for most teams when healthy.
Of course, “when healthy” is a major asterisk with the Dodgers, but as it stands, each of the aforementioned pitchers are expected to be healthy come Spring Training. Yes, even Ryu.
So let’s break the crop of starting pitchers into three sections: the guaranteed starters, competition and long shots.
The Guaranteed Starters: Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda
Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and Hill just signed a three-year, $48 million contract, giving the Dodgers one of the most formidable 1-2 punches in baseball. Last season, Hill had the second-lowest ERA among pitchers with 110+ innings. Who had the best such ERA? That belonged to Kershaw.
Then there’s Maeda — the only reliable arm the Dodgers had for the entirety of 2016 and some who would have had a great shot at winning the National League Rookie of the Year if not for one Corey Seager.
In 32 starts (the most on the team), Maeda went 16-11 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
CONTINUE READING: Pitchers in competition to crack the starting rotation, and more
The competition: Jose De Leon, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Julio Urias and Alex Wood
At the top of this group is Urias, the 20-year-old phenom who made 15 starts for the Dodgers this past season, posting a 3.39 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 77 innings.
The only reason Urias isn’t guaranteed a spot is if the Dodgers can’t get break up the logjam they have before Opening Day. Urias, unlike McCarthy, Kazmir and Ryu, can begin the year in the Minors — which might allow the front office to continue limiting his innings if they chose to.
That brings us to the aforementioned veteran group: McCarthy, Kazmir, Ryu and Wood. When healthy, all four are overqualified for the No. 5 spot in a rotation — the problem is, of course, the ‘healthy’ thing.
Kazmir, to be fair, was second on the team with 26 starts last season, while the other three combined for a grand total of 20 starts. There’s been speculation of the Dodgers shopping Kazmir and McCarthy, both of whom are on team-friendly contracts.
Kazmir is owed $32 million over the next two seasons, and McCarthy has two years and $20 million reaming on his deal. McCarthy’s contract also includes a club option for 2019.
Assuming they both remain with the Dodgers, who has the best chance at the final spot in the rotation? The best guess may be Wood. In 10 starts last season, he posted a 3.73 ERA with 66 strikeouts in 60 innings. Over his career, Wood has a 3.35 ERA in 77 starts.
Next up would be Kazmir, who was Jekyll and Hyde in his first season with the Dodgers. The southpaw generally enjoyed success in May and July, but struggled during April, June and August.
Prior to signing with the Dodgers, Kazmir posted three seasons of 29-plus starts with ERAs of 4.04, 3.55 and 3.10 (in the American League, no less). Point being, he’s a definite candidate for a strong bounce-back season.
Also involved is McCarthy, whose 4.95 ERA was hurt by his final appearance of the season: zero innings pitched, six runs allowed out of the bullpen against the San Francisco Giants. Prior to that, McCarthy sported a 3.60 ERA.
McCarthy’s disadvantage comes in his dependability, having made just 13 starts in two seasons with Los Angeles. When healthy last season, he was great. But when McCarthy is attempting to fight off the “injury-prone” label, it seemed like he tried pitching through more injuries than he should have.
Then there’s Ryu, the wild card. In his first two seasons, Ryu made 56 starts and posted an ERA of 3.16 with a 28-15 record. The last two seasons? He has made just one start.
Obviously, 2013-14 Ryu is a guaranteed starter, but 2015-16 Ryu isn’t even guaranteed a roster spot. He’s one to watch in Spring Training.
While rumored to be the centerpiece in a potential Brian Dozier trade, De Leon is still in the Dodgers organization as of this writing, and is a real threat to make the team as long as that’s the case.
Like Urias, De Leon can be sent back to the Minors this season, and it makes sense for that to be the case. In four Major-League starts, De Leon flashed the talent that makes him one of the best prospects in all of baseball, but ultimately posted a 6.35 ERA.
His time will come sooner than later, but the reality is it might not be early this season (or with the Dodgers).
Continue Reading: Evaluating Brock Stewart and Ross Stripling
The long shots: Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling.
Talk about organizational depth. Both Stewart and Stripling would be back-end starters for multiple teams.
In 14 starts last season (fifth on the team), Stripling was excellent, posting a 3.96 ERA. And Stripling nearly threw a no-hitter in his MLB debut. Perhaps what was most impressive, was the right-hander finished the season in long relief.
In his last five appearances, Stripling pitched 17.2 innings and showed no signs of wearing down — yielding a 3.06 ERA with 17 strikeouts. The truth is, that might be his long-term future with the Dodgers — as a bullpen arm that can provide spot starts and multiple innings when needed.
The final name on this list is Stewart, the 25-year-old who also made his Major League debut last season. In total, Stewart made seven appearances (five starts) with the Dodgers and sported a 5.79 ERA.
In watching Stewart’s first two appearances, the feeling was the results were a product of bad luck more than anything — weakly hit bloopers, seeing-eye-singles, etc.
That said, Stewart’s first two starts were rough: nine innings pitched, 14 earned runs allowed, 18 hits. His final three starts? 15 innings, three runs, 12 hits, 15 strikeouts. That line includes five scoreless innings with a career-high eight strikeouts against the Chicago Cubs.
So yes, the talent is there.
All in all, there are worse problems to have than too many starting pitchers. You don’t want it to ruin the clubhouse, but in December, it’s a good spot to be in.
As usual, if this group can stay healthy, they’ll be among the best in baseball. Then again, haven’t we heard that before?
The first installment in the State of the Dodgers was an overview of the 40-man roster, which can be read here.