It’s almost that time of year again. The most wonderful time of the year. Of course, I’m talking about the MLB Draft. You know, the time of year when kids coming out of high school are compared to Hall of Famers. When every first-round pick will be an All-Star.
I’ve been following the MLB Draft since 2004. That year, the Los Angeles Dodgers had three first round picks, which became Scott Elbert, Blake DeWitt and Justin Orenduff. Not their best haul, but definitely not the worst.
Before we go looking for another superstar, let’s take a look at what’s happened in the past, so we have an idea of what to expect from the Dodgers in the future.
A Little History
For 13 years, Logan White ran the draft for the Dodgers. His first was in 2002, when he selected familiar names like James Loney, Jon Broxton and Russell Martin. The following year, White drafted Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, and A.J. Ellis.
White would continue to add talent to the organization, both through the draft and the international market, for more than a decade. From Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen to Corey Seager to Julio Urias. White’s fingerprints are all over current Dodgers roster and will continue to be for a long time.
In 2014, after Andrew Friedman was hired as president of baseball operations, White left for the San Diego Padres. His replacement, coincidentally, came in the person of the Padres’ previous scouting director, Billy Gasparino.
This will be Gasparino’s third time running the draft for the Dodgers.
The Number 23
The Dodgers have a total bonus pool of $5,794,200 this year, which is the sixth-lowest in baseball. Their first round pick, No. 23 overall, has a slot value of $2,702,700.
The Dodgers’ second-rounder, the No. 62 pick, is the final selection with a seven-figure slot value. Los Angeles also holds the 100th pick.
The Dodgers have previously had the 23rd overall pick three times, taking Dennis Livingston in 1984, Damian Rolls in 1996 and Bubba Crosby in 1998. Livingston never reached the Majors, while Rolls and Crosby combined for a -1.8 WAR (Baseball-Reference) in 471 career games.
The best player ever drafted by any club at No. 23 is Jason Kendall, who finished his career with a 41.5 WAR.
Other notable picks at that slot include New York Yankees center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, 1995 American League MVP Mo Vaughn, former Dodger Aaron Sele, Miami Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich and current Triple-A Oklahoma City manager Bill Haselman.
CONTINUE READING: What to possibly expect from Billy Gasparino
Draft Prep
While two drafts under Gasparino isn’t a huge sample size, we can still look for any trends that might have developed. Gasparino generally tends to favor college players early. Three of his four top picks (Walker Buehler, Trea Turner and Hunter Renfroe) came from the college ranks.
Another trend that emerged but was broken last year was Gasparino’s selections of athletic, up-the-middle high school players in the second round. Dustin Peterson, Michael Gettys and Mitchell Hansen all fit that mold.
Gavin Lux fit the mold, if not the draft slot, as he was selected in the first round in 2016. Don’t be surprised if the Dodgers spend an early pick this year on an athletic high school bat.
White ignored conventional wisdom and regularly took high school pitching in the first and supplemental first round. From 2002-10, seven of his 15 first-rounders were high school pitchers.
However, that trend came to a fairly abrupt end after the 2010 Draft. Over the next six years, the Dodgers used just one of their 10 first-round picks on a prep arm.
With Gasparino at the helm, don’t expect the Dodgers to return to the prep pitching pool with their top pick. In his four drafts, Gasparino hasn’t taken a high school pitcher within the first two rounds.
Early Returns
Looking at Gasparino’s two drafts with the Dodgers, there is a significant amount of talent that has been acquired. His first pick, Walker Buehler, wasn’t necessarily lauded at the time, as he was hurt when he signed and missed the 2015 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
But Buehler has returned from surgery better than before and is now one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Other notable prospects to come out of that draft include Hansen, Josh Sborz, Willie Calhoun, Brendan Davis and Edwin Rios.
Gasparino’s 2016 haul looks promising as well. Armed with three first rounders, he popped Lux, Will Smith and Jordan Sheffield. Exciting picks followed in the ensuing rounds.
Mitchell White, the team’s second-rounder, looks like a steal. Dustin May, the Dodgers’ pick in the third round, became the highest drafted high school arm in Gasparino’s career and has pitched very well since signing. DJ Peters, AJ Alexy and Cody Thomas all show promise as well.
What to Expect
The easy money for the Dodgers’ first-round pick in the 2017 Draft is on a college player. Los Angeles has been linked to both college hitters and pitchers over the past few years, taking one of each in the first round in 2016.
However, there’s also a persistent rumor that the Dodgers are looking at high school outfielders this June.