The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a precarious spot heading into the 2016 Winter Meetings. On one hand, they’re coming off a season in which they won a fourth straight National League West title and missed the World Series by two games.
On the other, they face the prospect of losing their second-best position player, second-best starting pitcher and their best relief pitcher to free agency, as well as perhaps their greatest adversary: the new CBA.
How do the Dodgers fill their holes without angering the competitive balance Gods? It’s time to get creative.
Starting Pitching
Sure, the Dodgers have an abundance of pitchers, with Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy guaranteed roster spots (health permitting). Plus, you have the ghost of Hyun-Jin Ryu lurking, along with Alex Wood on the periphery trying to figure out what his role is.
And then you have the kids. Julio Urias, Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart and Ross Stripling, who could all battle for a spot in the rotation during Spring Training. That’s 10 pitchers — or two full rotations worth.
Still, the Dodgers could be on the lookout for a No. 2 starter. The easiest solution would be to re-sign Rich Hill. While Hill is slightly (majorly) injury prone, he’s been one of the best starters in baseball over the past two seasons.
It wouldn’t require more than a few years to retain his services, but the average annual value could prove to be prohibitive. That being said, the Dodgers reportedly have a three-year agreement in place with Hill at $46-48 million, which would be a bargain.
Other names on the market that fit that bill: File Not Found. There aren’t any. Seriously. Hill is the best starter on the market by a wide margin, and the next best option is Ivan Nova, who pitched in Japan last year.
Actually, Nava pitched for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but you weren’t sure where he pitched, were you?
In other news, the San Diego Padres non-tendered Tyson Ross. In 2015 he posted a 4.4 fWAR but made just one start this season (against the Dodgers) and then missed the rest of the year.
Ross underwent surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in October. It’s no guarantee that he’ll pitch again, let alone return to his previous form, but he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.
That opens the door for trades. And plenty of them. The aforementioned CBA will make it increasingly difficult for teams like the Dodgers to spend a significant amount of money over the next five years.
Not only will there be more taxes associated with exceeding the luxury tax threshold, there will also be punishments associated with the Draft as well as Major League and international signings.
So, all the Dodgers need to do is find talented, young, cheap starting pitchers and trade for them. Sounds easy, right? Well it may be. Just be prepared to kiss top prospects and Yasiel Puig goodbye.
The usual suspects can be found in familiar places. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s old stomping grounds in Tampa have plenty of young pitching, such as Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly.
Archer is obviously the best of the bunch and he’s also signed to an insanely team-friendly contract (owed just $38.5 million through 2021). Smyly and Odorizzi are arbitration-eligible and under control for two and three years, respectively.
Another target is a personal favorite of mine: Vince Velasquez. His second start in 2016 was a complete-game shutout with 16 strikeouts. He struggled in the second half, but still finished with a respectable 4.12 ERA and a 27.2 percent strikeout rate.
There are rumblings the Philadelphia Phillies may be looking to move Velasquez. He’ll be 25 in June and is under team control through 2021.
Those are the types of pitchers the Dodgers should, and probably will target. Don’t get your hopes up for a Zack Greinke homecoming or Justin Verlander, unless they Dodgers send significant salary back.
Regardless, the Dodgers will have to dip into the top of their farm system to claim any of those names. Unless you’re Cody Bellinger or Yadier Alvarez, you’re likely on the block.
CONTINUE READING: Relief Pitchers, Second Base And More
Relief Pitching
Failed catcher Kenley Jansen is also a free agent. The 29-year-old from Curacao has been the third-best relief pitcher in the Majors since 2010, according to fWAR. He was the best reliever this year by that same metric. For those reasons alone, the Dodgers should re-sign Jansen.
But, alas, it may be considered imprudent for them to spend their precious little luxury tax room on a relief pitcher. The Dodgers will have just under $40 million to spend this offseason to remain below the $235 million benchmark, which is where the “competitive balance” penalties really start adding up.
Are they going to dedicate half of that to Jansen? If they don’t, they’ll have to get creative.
Inquire about Alex Colome when they call the Rays about their young starters. Ask about Tyler Thornburg and Jeremy Jeffress if the Ryan Braun talks reheat with the Milwaukee Brewers. Or Farhan Zaidi could call up his old boss in Oakland and ask about the bullpen arms they’ve been hoarding up there, like Sean Doolittle, Liam Hendriks and Ryan Dull.
Dull might be the best adjective to describe the Dodgers’ trade options, but again, don’t look for them to spend big here if they don’t re-sign Jansen.
Yes, Los Angeles nearly traded for Aroldis Chapman and yes, Mark Melancon could prove to be a cheaper, fallback option. But unless the organization is willing to bite the bullet on luxury tax penalties in 2017, the last place they’ll look to add significant payroll is in the bullpen.
Second Base
With the surprise trade of Howie Kendrick to the Phillies last month, the Dodgers are suddenly without a starting second baseman. Chase Utley may be re-signed for his intangibles, but he’s not a starter.
The team does have internal options in Kiké Hernandez, Micah Johnson, Willie Calhoun and, to get really creative, Austin Barnes. But odds are that the Dodgers will look outside the organization for short-term help.
Neil Walker would have been an interesting solution had he not accepted the New York Mets’ qualifying offer. The rest of the free agent crop is barren.
Again reverting back to the Rays, they have Logan Forsythe. He went from utility player in 2014 to a four-win player in 2015. Forsythe primarily plays second base but also has some reps at third. He’s signed through next season, with an option for 2018.
Moving to the American League Central, there are a pair of second basemen who could fit into the Dodgers’ plans. Veteran Ian Kinsler produced yet another strong campaign in 2016, posting a 5.8 fWAR while hitting 28 home runs. Like Forsythe, Kinsler is signed for 2017 with a 2018 option.
In the Twin Cities, Brian Dozier had a power surge of his own, clubbing 42 homers. He snuck just past Kinsler in fWAR (5.9 to 5.8), and is signed for two more years at a total of $15 million.
The second base market is probably the most interesting, but it would come at significant cost in terms of prospects. Forsythe would likely be a package deal, while Dozier and Kinsler are two of the best position players in the league.
Prospect hoarders like myself would likely have to wear black armbands after a deal for one of these options comes to fruition.
CONTINUE READING: Third base, Outfield And Analysis
Third Base
The Mets’ loss was the Dodgers’ gain. Justin Turner was another who went from bench player to stud in no time. And now he’s likely to cash in big in free agency, be it with the Dodgers or elsewhere. If he prices himself out of L.A., where should the Dodgers look to for a replacement?
Evan Longoria makes sense as a replacement for the Turner. Longoria’s contract isn’t as friendly or flexible as other players on the list, as he’ll make $94 million through 2022, his age-36 season.
Still, he’s consistently been one of the best third basemen in baseball, ranking third in fWAR since 2010 among third basemen.
Then there’s the player the Dodgers almost traded for but didn’t: Todd Frazier. He went to the Chicago White Sox in the deal that landed the Dodgers Trayce Thompson, Frankie Montas and Micah Johnson.
Now that Chicago may be shopping Frazier, among others, there could be interest from both ends. Despite hitting 40 home runs, Frazier had something of a down year, posting a 102 wRC+. He’s only under control through 2017, so he’s not likely to be a very expensive option.
Obviously, the easy answer is to re-sign Turner, but it still depends on ownership’s willingness to fork over millions of dollars in taxes, while taking penalties in the Draft as well as the international market.
But those overages will be temporary, with the team able to shed most of its salary over the next two years. Not a lot of options here without a robust free agent market and no clear replacement in-house.
CONTINUE READING: Outfield And Analysis
Outfield
The good news is Joc Pederson established himself as an offensive threat. The bad news is the rest of the outfield situation is unstable. Do the Dodgers give Andrew Toles a regular gig after his unlikely debut?
Is Andre Ethier’s leg going to hold up over a full season? Does Puig receive yet another chance to prove himself?
Free agency provides some interesting options. Jose Bautista just turned 36 years old and won’t get a long-term deal. He’s coming off a down season in which he was still a good hitter, but his defense has taken a turn for the worse.
Other free agent options are less attractive. Dexter Fowler probably priced himself out of Los Angeles with his big 2016, and would need to move to a corner spot with the Dodgers. Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez are likely going to sign short-term deals but may not be better options than Puig.
Mark Trumbo and Carlos Beltran are more a first baseman and designated hitter, respectively. Which brings us back to Braun.
Rumor had it that the Dodgers were close to dealing Puig, Brandon McCarthy and a pair of prospects for the Brewers slugger. Other reports indicated the deal wasn’t imminent. Either way, adding that type of bat to the Dodgers’ lineup would be a coup.
Another name that’s been brought up in trade chatter is J.D. Martinez. Again, the Tigers aren’t guaranteed to be sellers, but packaging Martinez with Kinsler would kill two birds with one stone.
Martinez isn’t known for his defense, but he’s been one of the better hitters in the Majors over the past three seasons. He’s a free agent after the 2017 season.
This is another area where the Dodgers probably improve themselves via trade. Even though it feels like a Puig trade is imminent, the Dodgers could stand pat. Leave Puig in right field and Pederson in center, and platoon Toles with a healthy Scott Van Slyke or Trayce Thompson in left.
CONTINUE READING: What To Expect At Winter Meetings
What to Expect
Expect the Dodgers to lose at least one, probably two, possibly all three of their big free agents. This is definitely a case of hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
While the Dodgers have loads of salary coming off the books over the next two years, it’s clear that the front office has already made a concerted effort to reduce payroll. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
What would be bad is losing three of the team’s best players and not sufficiently replacing them. If Hill, Jansen and Turner are gone, those are three gaping holes that need to be filled. Put your money on filling them via trade rather than free agent signings.
The two teams that seem to match up best with the Dodgers are the Rays and the Tigers. Fans could be in for a long offseason, but a little faith should be placed in the Dodgers front office.
After all, they have delivered four straight division titles while constantly altering the roster. Just remember: it’s early December. The season doesn’t start for another four months, and teams that “win the offseason” often don’t carry that mantle onto the field.